Independence in Europe is not dead but the SNP must refocus for 2026

It would be a foolish government too who thought it acceptable to part company from so much of its core support – viz what ­happened to “Scottish” Labour in 2015 and the Tories more recently.

You shouldn’t govern only by public ­opinion, of course, otherwise we’d still have capital punishment and hands chopped off for theft. Equally, you have to respond to what people care about, rather than trying to impose a largely alien agenda.

It’s a safe bet that if most of the ­electorate either doesn’t understand or is actively ­hostile to a policy then the latter is unlikely to succeed.

Nothing worthwhile happens by ­diktat, yet grassroots-led change ­usually lasts because actual people have a stake in it.

This is why the calls for less ­centralisation and more localism are both powerful and valid.

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The SNP government has been guilty not just of hanging on to power for dear life, but having that power and influence exerted by way too narrow a base.

Those voices that urge a ­wholesale ­return to a democratically elected ­executive and the days when conference motions ­mattered – and for that matter were not ­selected to avoid debate and, heaven ­forfend, controversy – should be heeded. ­Already there is evidence of over-­management for the next gathering.

Whether or not the party founded to gain independence are in the market for root and branch reform in time for 2026 is moot, but very obviously the current messaging failed to resonate with the public.

In fairness, the SNP have tried to respond to one faction of their support thoroughly pissed off with the lack of serious action on independence, and another urging ­concentration on issues which matter to pressured household budgeting.

I know one previous leader suggested that if you can’t ride two horses at once you shouldn’t be in the circus. Conversely, I would suggest that trying to ride both at once is a surefire recipe for falling off both.

An independence supporter holds a sign at a rally

Certainly, many people have suggested that the nationwide rallies with a former leader were a mammoth folly, but ­having attended the one in Glasgow, I would ­argue that they were a reasonable means at that juncture of spreading enthusiasm and attracting commitment.

The problem with this is that you need then to get out and harness that enthusiasm and deliver on the ­promises which engendered that excitement. ­Otherwise, as we’ve just witnessed, it can dissipate all too quickly.

I have never thought that chopping the independence movement into ­assorted slices is a valid answer, though. Alba have still to make any impact, although they have attracted a fair number of former SNP activists. The Independence for Scotland Party have voiced some sound ideas but have risen – if at all – largely without trace. And I note that yet another pro-indy party is being punted.

The history of folk taking their bat and ba’ and stomping off elsewhere is not a happy one. The political graveyard is ­positively littered with the corpses of those who’ve tried. These offshoots only too quickly learn they’re not immune ­either from internecine warfare.

There is also the thorny question of leadership. Self-evidently John Swinney is a man generally regarded as decent and loyal.

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Just maybe, that is not what is currently needed.

John has made many sacrifices to answer the call, and nobody could ­gainsay his commitment to the cause. Yet he is also a man burdened by history and carrying a wheen of baggage from his days as a deputy.

Who knows what will happen in the USA, but they’ve recently shown how a fresh face and a new voice can enthuse.

Equally, the Conservatives at UK level have demonstrated the rashness of ­changing leaders too often, yet arguably they also emphasised the importance of choosing wisely.

Nobody would seriously suggest that Boris Johnson and Liz Truss ­fitted that bill. And, as so many of his ­erstwhile ­colleagues observed, Rishi Sunak wasn’t much good at politics – see when he announced the cancellation of the ­Manchester leg of HS2 at his own ­conference in, err, Manchester.

Meanwhile the Labour Party at both UK and Scottish level have become almost unrecognisable from what used to be called the People’s Party. The constant refrain of sticking to fiscal rules – whatever they are – just grates on voters who thought the call for change meant just that. Not ­merely putting new names to Tory ­policies.

This is an area of real opportunity for a Scottish national party which could ­seriously move into the left and centre-left gaps left by the incoming UK administration. Making an ex-banker the ­Chancellor is not exactly a clarion call to wealth ­re-distribution. Most especially if one of her first decisions is likely to impact on pensioner poverty.

At Scottish level, it’s not difficult to ­detect cracks appearing between Anas Sarwar’s need to woo those returning hopefully under his banner, and ­Keir Starmer’s pitches to middle England.

Like the Scottish Tories, Sarwar would be well advised to cut the umbilical cord to London control.

I seem to recall one of his Scottish Labour troops arguing loudly that the Scottish Government had sold the pass on having a Scottish Energy Company up and running by now. Instead, we find ourselves with a GB company, yet to find a Scottish home, and a confusing mist over its actual role.

In any event, it’s difficult to see how this would benefit Scottish energy consumers given the amount of the stuff we already export down south. The road to victory runs through Scotland, said Sir Keir before the election. And the road to buying Scottish votes lies in empty promises and brass plate baubles.

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People argue that Labour’s feet are hardly under the table yet, but none of the noises off are exactly re-assuring. Alan Milburn, for instance, was one of the most right-wing Labour health secretaries ever, and has now re-emerged as an adviser to the Department of Work and Pensions. Foxes and henhouses spring to mind.

There are two truths in all this which indy-minded folk need to embrace. One is that while Scotland remains divided on the constitutional question there can be no real progress. Persuading the waverers is and always has been an essential prerequisite.

The other hope to which I cleave is that regardless of party fortune and misfortune, a significant proportion of Scottish voters remain committed to ­independence, and the Yes movement and its local hubs remain in rude good health.

You wouldn’t think so, judging by the number of commenters who rushed with unseemly haste to bury the whole ­project. I would only urge readers of these tracts to reflect on what has been written by the self-same authors before. Few of them have ever relished the prospect of ­sovereign nationhood. On the contrary, many have long been hostile.

These are not the siren voices to which we should listen. Our job is to keep the flame alive and our aspirations intact. Few countries are as richly endowed with natural and human resources as our nation.

Each time I look at the membership of the European Union, I reflect how many members represent comparatively tiny countries and how many of these ­members have their hand immensely strengthened by their membership.

I boast a couple of stickers on my inside front door. One says Believe in Scotland and the other reads Always European. Neither are in any danger of being removed any time soon.