Why major focus of this SNP conference should NOT be independence

What did strike me, though, as the duo of callow Beeb youth batted inanities between them on the parlous state of the SNP, was the profound absence of any reference to the actual level of support for quitting the UK.

The latest polling, conducted by Panelbase between October 2-5, puts the Yes vote on a solid 45%, with No at 49%, and neutrals at 6%. These numbers are in line with previous polling data since June. If anything, support for indy has moved a tad higher since the spring, by a few points, though we are within the usual margins of error.

In other words, ignoring the SNP’s public travails, the electorate has not moved at all on the national question. Instead, a consistent half of Scottish voters want to leave the United Kingdom forever. Quit, secede, divorce, get rid of, escape, abandon – whatever word you want to use. That’s the bedrock political reality.

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The fascinating thing is that the ups and downs of the ruling nationalist party has had absolutely no impact on the indy numbers. Nicola Sturgeon announced her resignation on February 15. At that point, support for independence was at 40%, according to a YouGov poll.

Clearly there was a bit of short-term churn as the media speculated on the FM’s future and the party’s looming financial scandal occupied the headlines. But today, we are more or less where we were at the time of the 2014 referendum. So, the net electoral impact of the SNP crisis on independence – eight months on – is a big, fat zero. Not that you would know that from the BBC or the Tory-owned media.

In fact, there were polls over the summer where the Yes vote nudged ahead of No. In September, an Optimum poll for (of all institutions) the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change had Yes on 45% versus No on 41%. Three separate polls in May and June also showed a majority for leaving the UK. An Ipsos-MORI poll in late May – carried out after Humza Yousaf became SNP leader – actually had Yes on 51%.

Of course, these sporadic majorities could just be polling error. Every single opinion poll operates within a plus or minus of three percentage points. However, the various Yes majorities usually coincide with a temporary jump in the “don’t-knows”. This suggests to me that the No camp is very soft and wobbly. When Westminster does something daft, support of the Union wavers immediately.

Again, if we go back a year to the end of 2022, we find a couple of months when every poll by every organisation was showing a majority in favour of independence. The positive margin averaged around six points during the Liz Truss debacle and her replacement by Rishi Sunak.

In other words, at the height of the crisis in the Tory government, a majority of all Scottish voters were ready to jump ship on the UK. That does not suggest this United Kingdom is really united. Rather, it shows the British state could fall apart quickly – triggered by a crisis at its Westminster heart rather than SNP incompetence .

Where we did get a run of rising support for the Union was during the first few weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February last year. Obviously, the deterioration in the international situation prompted a desire in Scotland for security.

However, the real impact was seen in a sudden jump in the number of people registering as “don’t-knows” – not a jump in UK supporters per se. In fact, the rise in the number of folk not having a preference seems to come from both sides of the indy divide. That suggests that the independence movement needs to address security issues rather than be caught by events. We should also note that this wobble was shortlived.

Before that, there was a long period through 2020 and into 2021 indicating a majority for independence. This was in the wake of the Covid pandemic. Polls repeatedly showed a 10-point majority for indy.#

An Ipsos-MORI poll in October 2020 actually had Yes ahead by 13 percentage points! These numbers resulted from a consistent drop in No support plus a significant rise in don’t-knows” – often in double figures.

Again, this proves that majority support for the British state is actually wafer thin. In a crisis, such as the pandemic, swathes of nominally pro-Union voters start to wobble in their allegiance to the status quo.

All of this polling evidence indicates that the travails of the SNP as a party are a quite distinct issue from that of independence. The writ of the British state and Crown north of the Border is far from secure and certainly no more secure than it was in 2014.

Indeed, the fate of the Union still hangs by a thread in Scotland. Yes, Keir Starmer’s pale imitation of the Labour Party might well win next year’s General Election. But disappointment will set in very quickly and with it the collapse of any semblance of an English left.

A revived, populist, big-spending Tory Party will be waiting in the wings. The Tory populists will run roughshod over devolution and plunge the UK deep into fiscal and social mayhem. None of this bodes well for Scotland. But it will unleash the final break-up of Britain.

With all this in mind, the SNP conference will be wasting its breath if it over-fixates on the minute mechanics of constitutional change. The major focus should be on exposing Labour’s vacuity in the face of an impending economic recession, and in warning Scotland of the dangers from the emerging Tory populist right.

It is obvious that the SNP (even with the Greens) are not going to win a majority of votes or seats at the General Election. So dreaming of what happens if you do get some kind of a majority – pick your favourite one – is beside the point.

Instead, the SNP need to recognise that popular support for indy is undiminished. And that a large swathe of nominal supporters of the Union are less than solid in their allegiance.

The clear danger is not from Starmer’s centrist Labour Party. It comes from a new Tory Trumpist populism that mobilises voters with a revived Anglo-British nativism.

Voters don’t remain neutral or vacillating forever. They need a lead. Unless the indy movement – all of it, not just the SNP – gives that lead, then support for independence will eventually recede.

Trump himself could easily win the White House next year. And Marine Le Pen could become president of France in 2027. The world is lurching to the right.

We need to give Scots a progressive reason to vote for independence before the siren calls from the populist right fill the incipient political vacuum left by the collapse of the traditional centre and left. There is everything still to play for. Read the polls.