Assa Samake-Roman: Floods in Spain aren’t surprising – our inaction is

Each time a climate catastrophe hits Europe, the response from governments and the media often seems like shock, as though these disasters are unforeseen.

“Who could have seen it coming?”, to paraphrase French president Emmanuel Macron, who (incredibly) wondered aloud how we could have foreseen the climate crisis in his New Year’s address on Hogmanay in 2022.

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It’s time to dispel the illusion that Europe is somehow sheltered from the climate breakdown, that this is something that is only happening in remote lands, to people who are nothing like us.

More than ever, Europe must face the truth: these events are not anomalies. They’re part of a pattern, an urgent wake-up call for a continent still playing catch-up with a warming planet.

This year’s Mediterranean summer was the hottest on record, with sea temperatures breaking critical thresholds. Warmer seas mean more moisture in the air and, in turn, unprecedented rainfall.

This shift has stark implications for Mediterranean regions prone to the “cold drop” phenomenon – an atmospheric condition that produces intense storms. When intensified by climate change, it becomes a recipe for catastrophic floods, capable of sweeping away communities in mere hours.

Europe’s recent years have been scarred by similar disasters. In 2021, torrential rains devastated Belgium and Germany, leaving more than 200 people dead and causing billions in damages.

Scientists call this the “new normal,” but in truth, these events are anything but normal. They underline the need for Europe to prepare for the scale and pace of climate impacts we now face.

Despite clear patterns, Europe’s climate preparedness lags alarmingly behind. Here in the UK, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has flagged major gaps in flood protections and heat management, criticising the government’s reluctance to prioritise resilience.

Leaders have treated adaptation measures as optional or as issues to address “later,” rather than as central to public safety. It’s a short-sighted approach with tragic consequences.

Even in Spain, where seasonal storms are a familiar threat, protections for people and infrastructure have fallen short. A significant part of the issue is political: during the recent storm, conservative and far-right leaders in Valencia delayed issuing evacuation warnings out of concern for economic impacts.

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Why put an entire region’s economy on hold, they argued, on the chance that the weather might not be as severe – even as the national weather agency issued multiple urgent warnings about extreme conditions?

This mindset, which views climate policy as a hindrance to growth, puts lives at risk.

And it’s not unique to Spain. Across Europe, leaders still treat climate adaptation as a “future problem,” despite decades of scientific warnings that every degree of warming increases the likelihood of extreme weather.

For years, many governments have downplayed or minimised climate measures, often citing the “burden” of green policies. Right-wing and far-right parties fuel this scepticism, framing environmental policy as punitive or economically harmful. This narrative – that green policies punish society – distorts public perception, obscuring the true cost of inaction.

In reality, it’s inaction itself that punishes society. We see this every time a flood hits a densely populated area, displacing families and stretching emergency resources.

It’s a stark reminder that each missed opportunity to invest in resilience costs more than preventative action ever would. The financial “burden” governments seek to avoid by skimping on climate protections pales compared to the costs of recurring disasters.

This becomes abundantly clear when examining recent floods in Spain, Belgium, and Germany. These events leave behind staggering repair bills: homes destroyed, public infrastructure wiped out, not to mention lives lost and communities torn apart.

Climate resilience may be costly, but the price of inaction is far higher.

The current climate trajectory is both unsustainable and perilous. The United Nations’ latest Emissions Gap Report warns that without more ambitious action, we are on track for a rise of 3.1C by the end of the century – a level that would make today’s crises seem minor in comparison.

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This path far overshoots the targets set by the Paris Agreement, which aimed to keep global warming “well below” 2°C, ideally 1.5°C. For context, each degree of warming brings exponentially worse impacts. At 3.1C, climate disasters could overwhelm even the wealthiest economies, while the most vulnerable communities bear the heaviest burdens.

In a future marked by intensified climate events, Europe’s infrastructure – and indeed its way of life – will face unprecedented pressures. Floods will grow more destructive, droughts more severe, and heatwaves more lethal. The notion that adaptation can be treated as an afterthought is proving dangerously naive.

As these disasters unfold, the debate often reverts to familiar arguments about economic costs. We’re asked to weigh “growth” against climate action, as though a thriving economy could somehow coexist with a devastated environment. This is a dangerously short-sighted view, one that traps us in a cycle of unending vulnerability.

For political leaders, it’s time to reframe the conversation. The question cannot be whether we can “afford” climate action; it must be whether we can afford not to act. This shift requires us to recognise that the stability of our economies, societies, and ecosystems are inextricably linked.

Green policies and investments in climate resilience should be viewed not as luxuries but as essential to both public safety and long-term prosperity.

The upcoming COP29 summit in Baku offers yet another chance for leaders to acknowledge this urgency. And yet, every year, we see the same tired promises, the same delays. The latest UN report starkly warns that our climate pledges need to be more than aspirational words; they must translate into tangible commitments. When we fail to follow through, it’s not just credibility we lose – it’s lives and livelihoods.

In the past, Europe cast itself as a global climate leader, setting ambitious emissions targets and signing international accords. But signatures alone are insufficient.

We need robust policies and infrastructure capable of withstanding the impacts of climate change. This includes strengthening flood defences, reducing carbon emissions, and protecting vital green spaces.

For ordinary citizens, the path forward can seem overwhelming. Watching these disasters unfold leaves many feeling helpless. But public pressure matters. When we demand that leaders take meaningful steps – investing in flood defences, transitioning to renewable energy, and prioritising sustainability – these actions drive change.

As Valencia grapples with its aftermath, we must remember that this crisis isn’t an isolated event. It’s part of a global pattern, a stark reminder of the consequences of ignoring climate reality. Europe, long insulated from the worst impacts, must now confront its vulnerability. The belief that this is something we can afford to put off belongs to the past.

Spain’s floodwaters shouldn’t just shock us; they should galvanise us into action. If we are struggling to handle climate disasters now, with the world barely 1°C warmer, what makes us think we’ll somehow cope when temperatures climb even higher?

The costs of climate inaction are already devastating, and with every delay, they only grow steeper and more catastrophic. We cannot keep treating each disaster as an isolated surprise; they’re warnings of what’s to come.

Now is the time for Europe to commit to meaningful, lasting resilience before these crises escalate beyond our control.