ACROSS the UK, a record-breaking 66% of the electorate did not vote for the winning party, and similarly in Scotland, 64% did not vote Labour.
That huge majority segment of the electorate must feel like bemused bystanders in the process of government selection. It’s understandable that the SNP are being careful not to say anything that would appear to minimise the significance of their own defeat, but the fact remains that for every six people that voted Labour in Scotland, another five voted SNP.
Very little of the media commentary about the result has really reflected that ratio. It’s also notable that Labour’s victory in Scotland was very similar to the SNP’s win in 2017, in terms of vote share, the percentage lead over the second-placed party, and also the number of seats won. And yet the SNP were informed in no uncertain terms that their 2017 result was unimpressive and certainly didn’t constitute any sort of mandate for the contents of their manifesto. For some reason, the same rules do not seem to apply to Labour in Scotland in 2024.
(Image: Jeff Moore/PA)
It’s not even the case that Labour outperformed, or that the SNP underperformed, the numbers seen in the pre-election opinion polls. Most polls reported a modest Labour lead of a few points, in line with the lead of just under six points seen in the real results.
READ MORE: Owen Jones: This is Keir Starmer's high point, so what now?
But what a party believes to be true about its result in an election may ultimately be more important than what is actually true, and it’s clear that the SNP have collectively decided that their result falls into the “disastrous” rather than the “disappointing” category. Stephen Flynn even said that no-one had seen the scale of the defeat coming, a slightly surprising comment given how accurate the polls were about the popular vote.
But what he may have been referring to was the total SNP wipeout in the central belt, which not even the exit poll had prepared anyone for.
Although the exit poll was roughly accurate about the total of seats the SNP would end up with nationally, it was right for the wrong reasons. It had predicted that the SNP would show some resistance in the central belt and retain a few seats there, but that this would be offset by surprise losses to the Tories in rural constituencies like Perth and Kinross-shire and Argyll, Bute & South Lochaber.
The latter part of the equation would have been psychologically less important because it would have been obviously caused by Unionist tactical voting, and would thus have done nothing worse than take the gloss off a creditable effort in the main battleground.
READ MORE: The National view on the election: A new start for independence?
As it turned out the losses to the Tories did not occur, but that couldn’t compensate for the shock at the unbroken sea of red in the main centres of population. There were a few central belt seats where the SNP had seemed to be significantly better-placed than in others – such as North Ayrshire & Arran and Kilmarnock & Loudoun – so they would have been expecting to at least nick one or two seats here or there, but that simply didn’t materialise.
Having settled on the “disaster” narrative, the SNP will move into a period of deep soul-searching in which all sorts of drastic changes may be considered. But the real debate will focus on a difference of interpretation about the SNP’s “independence problem” in this election.
Nicola Sturgeon has criticised the SNP for not making sufficient use of independence as their unique selling point, while others take the opposite view and believe that over-emphasis on independence led voters to think the SNP were detached from day-to-day concerns. In truth, the party fell between two stools – being too half-hearted about independence to convince jaded Yes supporters that a vote for the SNP would bring the goal closer, while still giving enough prominence to independence in the manifesto to ensure that the media could gleefully paint an election setback as a defeat for “separation”.
(Image: PA)
The SNP’s gradualist wing can point to Holyrood polling data and make a plausible case that a managerial 2026 Holyrood campaign that de-emphasises independence, and instead relies on John Swinney (above) being seen as more competent than Anas Sarwar, would have a high probability of maintaining the SNP’s status as the largest party in Holyrood. But there are two obvious counter-arguments.
Firstly, that might be the pursuit of power without purpose, and wouldn’t address the question of how independence can be achieved. And secondly, it might not even achieve power, because a modest win could still see the SNP frozen out of office by an unholy Unionist coalition.
Both from the point of view of partisan self-interest and the best interests of the independence cause, it may be necessary for the SNP to set their sights much higher and to try to win another outright pro-independence majority at Holyrood. And the only realistic way of doing that would be to make a big offer to the roughly half of voters who polls show still want Scotland to become an independent country.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel