IT would usually feel like a bit of a gamble to write this column before the polls closed, having to predict the result of an election before a single vote was counted. But this time, any result other than a Labour landslide seemed utterly implausible – certainly it would be the biggest imaginable misstep by the entire polling industry.
After 14 years of Tory rule, it’s easy to see why so many people were desperate to be rid of them. From Brexit to anti-migrant racism and from Boris Johnson’s partygate to Liz Truss and her disastrous mini-budget, the Tories have served up a toxic mixture of cruelty, corruption and incompetence.
What matters now though is what comes next. Keir Starmer’s slogans are about change but in reality he has promised very little, with the assumption that if he can’t be held to anything specific then he can’t disappoint. Most of his explicit commitments have been about what he won’t change.
But being elected for not being Rishi Sunak is not enough. The challenges the new government will face are huge and they won’t be made any less difficult because the names round the Cabinet table are different. The UK doesn’t just need a new government, it needs new politics.
We only need to look at the economy. Inequality is rife, and millions of people are feeling the impact of the cost of living crisis and Westminster-imposed austerity. Young people are paying extortionate rents and working in poorly paid jobs. Parents having to go without food to support their children.
And despite it all, the Labour leadership remains committed to Tory fiscal rules.
Real and urgent change is needed to address rising poverty. Labour could have made clear that the super-rich must start paying their share to end the cruel two-child benefit cap that is plunging families into poverty.
The party’s decision to discount these measures was consistent with a cautious approach to winning the campaign but it’s an approach that simply won’t work in government.
With a realignment of the far right looking like an inevitable consequence of this election, Labour need to face up to the fact that bland centrism is failing against right-wing threats across Europe and beyond.
Unless they can quickly find a way to address the deep resentment at the state the Tories have left the country in, his promise of change will soon look hollow, and an insurgent populist movement will find easy pickings.
When Labour’s Tory-lite campaign looked to threaten their revival in Scotland, Anas Sarwar made a brief attempt to set out a different vision. He said that with a Labour government austerity will be over. Now they are in government, he will have to answer for his UK colleague’s decisions if they refuse to reverse Tory spending cuts.
Scotland clearly has a desire to reverse decades of under-investment in our public services and infrastructure and the decision to raise taxes on high earners to do so has proved popular – so much so that the SNP regularly take credit for it and ignore the fact it took years of Green pressure before they were willing to do it. But there are still severe limits to our ability to take action.
So if Labour continue with Tory fiscal policy and refuse to invest to rebuild public services and close the holes in the social security safety net, the issue of Scotland’s right to govern itself will continue to rise up many people’s agenda.
Beyond our own borders and on the world stage this new government will quickly be tested too. Will it continue to arm and support Israeli forces as they inflict atrocities on the people of Gaza? Will it dismantle the racist hostile environment that has seen refugees and migrant communities targeted, detained and demonised? The signs are far from encouraging.
When it comes to our environment, I fear Labour’s vision and mettle are just as lacking. The climate and nature emergency is the greatest threat we have ever faced but Labour had dropped their flagship green investment plans before the election was even called, and pledged to continue with every reckless new oil and gas licence the Tories approved.
I would love to be wrong about all this. I desperately want to see real change because people across our country need it. I want to be able to hope for a genuinely bold and reforming government that does the right thing for people and planet. But I have my doubts!
I’ve been here before. I remember the deeply underwhelming New Labour government. I remember the constant disappointment, the privatisations and the courting of the super-rich at everyone else’s expense; the way the bankers cashed in on human misery and the devastating impact of a decade of war in Iraq.
I don’t know if Starmer’s Labour will do anything as grotesque as that. But then I don’t think any of us really know what they’re going to do. And that’s the real problem – the country needs change, and Labour have used the word, but while, I’m sure we’re looking at a big Labour majority in Parliament, they have no mandate for the change that’s needed, because they didn’t really ask for one.
One thing I do know is that I am very proud of every Scottish Green candidate and the campaigns they have run, and grateful to everyone who voted Scottish Green. With every conversation on every doorstep, they have laid the groundwork for the critical Holyrood election in 2026, when we must return a pro-independence majority that’s progressive, ambitious, and unafraid to offer the real change Scotland needs.
If there’s another thing I know for certain it is that Scotland’s communities and our climate cannot handle another five years of status quo politics. Through our work in the Scottish Parliament and in movements across our country, my Scottish Green colleagues and I will do everything we can to ensure that doesn’t happen.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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