Threat of strikes that will loom over Keir Starmer as prime minister

But statistics from the Office for National Statistics show that since the spring of this year, the monthly number of strikes, days not worked, and workers involved have tailed off considerably.

Indeed, the strike statistics for March and April 2024 show we are now back to the pre-June 2022 levels. This was the time when the levels of strike activity were at their lowest ever in Britain.

This is all extremely fortunate for Keir Starmer and the Labour Party in the run-up to the General Election on Thursday. But it may not be quite the same after he and his party enter 10 Downing Street.

With the exception of the long-running Aslef train drivers’ dispute, the five-day strike by junior doctor members of the British Medical Association in England from June 27 has been the sole recent evidence of the last remaining major dispute over pay.

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Whether through slim victories or reluctant compromises, the major strikes – in the public sector among the likes of civil servants, or in the private sector amongst the likes of RMT union members in the train operating companies – have pretty much been and gone for the time being.

All this meant that Starmer did not have to fend off potentially embarrassing questions about whether Labour supported or condemned the strike action of union members seeking higher pay rises.

Recalling that Starmer does subscribe to the notion that higher pay causes rising inflation – and not that rising inflation stimulates demands for higher pay rises – he could have been holed below the waterline on this issue.

The salience of all this is that no matter how much Starmer has tried to dampen down electoral expectations of how much progressive change a Labour government will usher in, many people will nonetheless still expect and desire that he and Labour will loosen the purse strings to facilitate higher pay rises, especially in the public sector among teachers and those working in the NHS.

(Image: Newsquest)

While there is a widespread view that there is little enthusiasm for an incoming Starmer-led Labour government, none of this can overcome the residual feeling that Labour will be different and should be on the side of workers.

Yet all throughout the phoney war before the election was called and ever since it was called on May 22, Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves have gone out of their way to say there is and will be no “magic money tree” to be shaken. It will, thus, be a case of “austerity painted red” as Plaid Cymru has recently suggested.

Consequently, for the next year and more there will be a considerable clash of expectations. This will be a trying time for Starmer, Reeves and Labour. The honeymoon could well be quite short-lived and D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better will not be heard ringing out in Westminster any time soon.

Already, a number of significant union leaders have promised to hold Starmer and Reeves’ “feet to the fire” over public sector pay rises.

Matt Wrack, Fire Brigades Union and the current Trades Union Congress (TUC) president, has urged Starmer not to enforce tight public sector pay settlements.

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He said: “An incoming Labour government has to take account of the fact that people have struggled over 14 years, particularly on the back of the cost of living crisis. Something has got to be done to address that in people’s pay packets.

“I get that they’re going to be under financial constraints … but something will need to be done about it. Otherwise, you may see people taking further industrial action.’ Other union leaders have weighted in too. Daniel Kebede, leader of the National Education Union, has predicted: “Any honeymoon period will be short-lived unless teachers and school staff can see a meaningful shift in direction … It won’t take long for the deep expressions of anger that were witnessed last year through the national dispute to come to the fore again.”

He continued: “I’m deeply concerned that there will not be a break from austerity – and without a break from austerity we will see pools of bitterness grow in our communities in which far-right reactionary forces falsely present as solutions to people’s problems.”

Fran Heathcote, Public and Commercial Services union leader, has made similar if less stark predictions.

So, it looks like Starmer will not have the smooth ride that Blair had from 1997 onwards. A growing economy and much goodwill saw Blair ride out any torrid troubles until the early 2000s.

Even with a sizeable parliamentary majority, Starmer will face demands and action to stump up the money for public sector pay rises.

If he does not, any reticence to go strike to force him to do so will fall “like snaw aff a dyke” this coming winter.

Gregor Gall is a visiting professor of industrial relations at the University of Leeds and author of the book Mick Lynch: The Making Of A Working-Class Hero (Manchester University Press, 2024)