John Swinney must accept high stakes of this election

The General Election will be held on July 4.

Sure, it’ll be harder for Scots, in the middle of trades holidays which will leave schools and other polling stations shut and staff elsewhere. Even if we do undertake the biggest-ever postal voting effort in history – and connect with voter photo ID properly for the first time – that date just doesn’t work for us. Evidently though, who cares?

The question is does it work for the SNP and for independence?

It should.

An imminent election gives the SNP a very good reason to go on an immediate and unapologetic recruitment and fundraising drive.

A quick six-week run to the line might challenge the resources of smaller indy rivals in Alba and the Scottish Greens.

READ MORE: Unionist parties announce plot to oust SNP as General Election set for July 4

Scots will be seeing a lot more of Sunak and Starmer in the next six weeks, according to Conservative Home creator Tim Montgomerie. Wow – woodentop central. Honestly, bring that on.

Meanwhile, an election called to suit everyone else in the UK bar Scots is kinda galling. A date picked before England’s likely progress to the Euro quarter-finals even more so, though with any luck, Scotland will also be facing quarter-final action then.

If our team qualifies, it’ll be a rare, emotional, proud and heady moment for Scots.

If Scotland doesn’t progress, constant commentary about England (it’s coming home, etc) will really start to grate.

But more seriously, the SNP have got their house in order just in time. There’s a new weel-kent and respected figure leading the party at Westminster and the Swinney/Forbes duo at Holyrood effectively sinking the left/right splits that seemed unfixable under Humza Yousaf. Yes, more time would be nice. But John Swinney clearly hopes ending the Bute House Agreement won’t lose Green support – in his speech yesterday, the new FM laid great stress on the climate and biodiversity emergencies.

According to polling expert Professor John Curtice, the new party leader starts his job with better polling numbers than his predecessor. According to Ipsos Mori, 37% feel Swinney will do a good job while only 23% predict a bad job. And according to Panelbase, 28% of SNP voters in 2019 are more likely to vote SNP with Swinney in the top job.

A General Election lets the SNP deconstruct the myth of who Labour really are. Yessers were accused of being day-dream believers back in 2014, but the easy and unchallenged assertions of a fabulously better Britain made yesterday by Labour’s Ian Murray (with all key assets still privatised) really beggar belief. Meanwhile, Labour will have to explain why so few locals are worthy of nomination in key seats where folk fae sooth have been parachuted in.

Melanie Ward, chief executive of Medical Aid for Palestinians, initially aimed to run for Labour in London but was defeated by the son of Labour chief of staff Sue Gray, so she’s standing in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath because Labour had to remove its first candidate, after revelations of “racist” comments on social media.

Elsewhere, Labour have selected a councillor from Kent to run in Angus and Perthshire Glens and a Lewisham councillor to run in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross against the excellent Lucy Beattie, who’s already been in place as an actual local for some time.

It’s also true that an election campaign creates focus and excitement for the SNP – which has been starting to suffer from a bit of anti-climax after some highly eventful weeks and months. And, of course, involvement in UK and Scottish TV debates gives Messrs Swinney and Flynn the chance to boost their profiles. After all, it’s the first General Election for almost a decade without Nicola Sturgeon at the SNP’s helm.

And finally, if Rishi Sunak is radge enough to call an election he knows he’ll lose, there’s no reason for the SNP to hesitate just because pollsters currently put them behind. Actually, a shift from shoe-ins to underdogs might counter accusations of complacency and hubris.

But there’s no pretending. The polls look bad.

In Scotland, YouGov suggests Labour are on 39% with the SNP 10 points behind on 29%, the Conservatives on 12% (-2), LibDems on 8% (no change), Scottish Greens on 7% (+3) and Reform UK on 4% (-1).

YouGov says this “commanding” lead is the highest for Labour and lowest for the SNP since the 2014 indyref.

So, the commentariat doubtless expects the Scottish end of this unexpected election to become a kilted version of Westminster, where the Tories resemble a collection of turkeys voting for Christmas.

And yet here in Scotland, it’s all to play for.

Seat projections from Professor Curtice put Labour on 35 MPs, the SNP on 11, the Tories on six and the LibDems five.

But can that be turned around with the usual talk of keeping Labour honest and “holding Starmer’s feet to the fire”? Or do swithering Scots need to hear something far more dynamic?

Probably the “softest” lost voters are the estimated 20% of Yessers in 2014 who are currently planning to back Labour. My guess is that steady as she goes won’t bring them back.

Of course, it’s hard for Swinney to be conciliatory in the Holyrood context but combative in the General Election campaign. His domestic agenda until last night was all about steadying the ship, co-operation and no polarisation.

But excitement, challenge and polarisation are exactly what’s needed in a General Election campaign.

Put bluntly, the new party leader needs to make a powerful statement about WHY Scots should vote SNP when his party can’t become the UK Government. Swinney has to say that Yessers must vote SNP or the cause of independence will be badly damaged. High stakes, yes – gloves aff certainly.

Now it’s true that putting indy on the line would be foolish if the SNP ARE quietly certain of losing to Labour on July 4. But isn’t defeat more likely with another 2017-style muddied message about independence? That was the election (albeit a Scottish election) when Sturgeon took indy off the table and so demoralised members and Yes supporters that SNP leaflets remained undelivered.

Are we going there again?

Mebbes aye.

Stephen Flynn was on Radio Scotland last night making no mention of independence until challenged by interviewer Martin Geissler.

The Aberdeen South MP said this election would be all about trust – which party do Scots trust most to push for more UK spending on renewables, closer links to the EU, more money invested in health? Asked about Yousaf’s pledge that the first line of their manifesto would read, “A vote for the SNP is a vote for independence”, Flynn replied that “no manifesto is determined by its first sentence”.

Hmm.

Now, to be fair, he went on to say that if the SNP win, it’ll be a mandate for Scottish people to have control over their future. No direct mention of the “I” word there, either.

Yes, it’s early days and everyone was caught on the hop yesterday but that kind of talk doesn’t get the blood pumping.

Not pumping enough for activists to saddle up as we might, cancel holidays and get out on the streets to demonstrate that half of the Scottish electorate really does want independence.

If Sunak can be bold (okay, maybe mad), can the SNP please find it in themselves to be bold too?

After all, it’s what fortune truly favours.