What Keir Starmer could learn from missteps of François Hollande

This scenario suggests that Keir Starmer is unlikely to experience a traditional “honeymoon period”; instead, the mood will very quickly turn to expectation for answers, results and accountability. The pressure is officially on.

I make this observation because this scenario seems so familiar to me. It may sound funny, but I find a striking resemblance between Starmer’s circumstances and the experience of former French president François Hollande.

If Labour does win the next election, then both leaders will have stepped in when the public were absolutely fed up with the people in charge, with voters mainly backing them to kick out the current party in government.

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In the 2012 French presidential race, Hollande was all about being a “normal president,” a direct opposite to Nicolas Sarkozy’s flashy style that was a bit over the top – Sarko was basically everywhere, too undignified, too offensive, really making a fool of himself. Hollande wanted a change, not just in looks but in how the president’s office was perceived, especially after five years of sleaze and scandals.

Even though Sarkozy enjoyed a substantial support base, especially at the beginning of his time as president, he attracted more and more criticism.

Voters thought the president’s office should be more respectable and statesmanlike. People felt like the respect for the presidency and politics in general took a hit during his term.

To these people, Hollande’s pitch was a whole commitment to bring respect back to the presidency. Hollande aimed to represent all French citizens, focusing on unity and inclusivity instead of Sarkozy’s confrontational, divisive tactics.

So “Mr Normal”, as he ended up being nicknamed, might have come off as a bit unremarkable, a bit boring even, but the French were ready for it. Actually, we were yearning for it – finally, the respite we all desperately needed! I recall my dad saying: “I’m not overly excited about Hollande, I don’t really think he’ll be a game-changer, but at least he will bring some peace, and people will be less divided.”

But despite Hollande’s intention to embody a “normal president” for the sake of stability and unity after the chaos, his term ended up being quite a rollercoaster. Internal dissent, economic challenges, and national tragedies, including a series of terrorist attacks across the country, made it a challenging five-year tenure, significantly affecting his ability to fulfil the promised sense of normalcy. He ended up being so unpopular that he couldn’t face the verdict of voters a second time – a historical first.

Things went south for Hollande within the first year of his presidency – fights within his majority, some saying he wasn’t pushing social reforms fast enough. Then came a social-liberal shift in approach, which led to government ministers leaving, and many of Hollande’s own MPs openly defying the government until the bitter end.

It was a mess. Hollande seemed to lose control and authority, even within his own party – not the kind of situation you want at the top of the state, as we are seeing with the Tories right now. Also significantly, Hollande was always seen as the extreme centrist, the one going for a weak consensus – someone who constantly tried to please everyone, unable to say no and to decide.

He was known as the president who couldn’t make tough decisions or say things as they are – a reputation that still follows him today. Now, you understand why I have this sense of deja vu.

Starmer, who would also be dealing with a complicated socio-political landscape, tackling issues like the cost of living crisis and struggling public services, has been emphasising this same sense of normalcy, showing that he offers a real alternative after all the chaos.

In a recent survey a few months ago, it turned out the public sees the Labour leader more favourably than Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, but still tag him as a bit dull. When people were asked for a single word to describe him, “boring” was the term that came up the most – followed by “honest” and “good”.

“If they are calling you boring, you’re winning,” he recently said. However, Mr Boring could learn from the missteps of their sister party’s Mr Normal across the Channel: winning the election will be a significant achievement, but what comes after that is going to be even harder.

Hollande’s time as president feels like a cautionary tale, warning of potential troubles for Starmer if he wins. Hollande didn’t get much of a honeymoon period, and Starmer might face a similar deal, especially with the upcoming election, which seem more like a referendum against the long-standing Tory rule, as I was writing in my column last week.

Eight out of 10 voters are now unhappy with how the country is being run by the current government. But voters aren’t just picking a party, they are going against the status quo. So don’t expect them to be thrilled with the new government. They are going to want results, and the clock will be ticking louder than ever.

Looking back at Hollande’s time, it is clear that any honeymoon period, if there even is one, is short-lived. Voters, attracted initially by the idea of change, quickly get tired of just being against the previous government. Sure, the Labour promise of bringing back decency and respect might win votes at the start, but it is not a plan on its own.

This is also why I believe that the talk of independence being off the table if Labour wins in Scotland is being blown out of proportion, to be honest.

Yes voters moving to Labour instead of sticking with the SNP would indeed shake things up massively in Scotland, for the first time in years. Some suggest it might mark the end of the independence discussion, but I think that is jumping the gun.

Starmer’s emphasis may not resonate with those pushing for more significant changes, especially independence supporters.

Even if the topic takes a back seat for a little while, it is likely to resurface. The 50-50 split in polls tells us that independence remains a significant and ongoing discussion in Scotland, and assuming it is done for would be premature. The polls suggest the conversation is far from over.

How Starmer leads and its impact on the independence talk could shake things up more than we anticipate. The situation might not be as settled as some believe, and the door to the independence conversation looks like it is swinging back open sooner rather than later.