ONLY the strongest of stomachs – those hardened by decades of rich food and fine ports – could handle another Tory leadership contest. It’s no surprise, then, that the rumours swirling about plans to oust Rishi Sunak as leader have arisen from the mutterings and threats of the weirdo wing of the party.
Whether it’s bloodlust or just good old-fashioned masochism that fuels them, it’s hard to say. At a meeting of the 1922 Committee a few weeks ago, Tory backbenchers were reportedly told by the Tory General Election campaign manager Isaac Levido that it’s time to “unite or die”.
Observant readers will remember this was a phrase Sunak himself used in a similar appeal to backbenchers back in 2022 when he was chosen to be the next Tory leader and Prime Minister.
It says a lot about your leadership abilities if, when given the option to band together or die, your colleagues repeatedly opt for the more destructive option. After an explosive poll that showed the Conservatives are facing a near wipeout scenario at the next election, the plotters believe they have nothing to lose. Apart from their seats. Which, to be fair, they will probably lose anyway.
While their numbers are currently small – and consist of the sort of swivel-eyed fanatics that most MPs would be minded to avoid at a dinner party – they believe more will soon be on board.
The number of no-confidence letters that have thus far been submitted against the Prime Minister is believed to be nowhere near the scale required to force a vote. But with support for Reform UK growing among disgruntled Tory voters, the plotters would expect more MPs to join the cause to oust Sunak if Nigel Farage joins Reform’s General Election campaign.
Such a move would send panic through Tory HQ. An election campaign against a resurgent Labour Party is one thing. Voters also going over to the dark prince of the right would only deepen the Tories’ losses and make it all the more difficult to claw their way back from opposition into government.
In itself, a Tory leadership contest isn’t a particularly exciting prospect. Given the number of unelected prime ministers that have been foisted upon us since the last General Election, we have a good idea of how it would go.
There would be soundbites about the need for a fresh start, a renewed vision and to listen to the concerns of ordinary people. There would be a series of lacklustre hustings and leadership debates, where the nasty party would show exactly how it earned its nickname.
A racist tweet from one of the candidates would probably resurface and kill their chances with some MPs while earning them the votes of a few others.
In the end, the Tories would end up with another leader just like Sunak who lacks the ability to unite the warring party and get them on to a strong election footing. But with a General Election not expected until the autumn, Sunak faces a prolonged period under friendly fire.
Even if the plotters fail to win the support of their colleagues and build momentum for their campaign to give him the chop, it’s not an ideal scenario for a Prime Minister who will soon be asking for the public’s support.
It’s a hard sell. “Trust me, even though my party doesn’t. Let me lead you through the next five years, even though my colleagues are on every TV and radio station saying I don’t have the skills required even to lead them.”
Sunak doesn’t strike me as a clinger-on in the way Boris Johnson was. If he does indeed wait until the autumn to hold an election, it is probably because he genuinely believes he can turn around the party’s fortunes, if allowed the time to do so.
The whiff of delusion is always strongest on the Conservative side of the Chamber.
If he wants to win – or mitigate the extent of the loss that his party faces – then he might decide it is better to roll the dice and go earlier.
If he called an election for May, the latest back-biting and shenanigans from his colleagues would be drowned out by the election campaign. What better way to distract your frenemies than force them to fight for their seats?
The Prime Minister has to weigh up the advantage he would get from waiting until the autumn, which would give him time to announce a tax cut or two, against the short, sharp end to the discord that a May election would help bring about.
Whatever he chooses, he’s still likely to lose the next election – and badly.
But politicians are ego-driven creatures. By calling an election in May, Sunak would gain an element of control over how the next few months play out.
It might be a more enjoyable way to spend what is sure to be his last months as Prime Minister.
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