IT was like the firing of a starting gun. I’m talking about the news this week, of Donald Trump’s sweeping victory in Monday’s Iowa Republican caucuses.

Not only did his win signal that the US presidential election was now getting down to serious business, but it served too as a sharp reminder of what potentially is at stake for the United States, should Trump be re-elected to the White House.

If American voters choose to have him back, then who are we to complain, you might argue. This, after all, is democracy in action. But, with that said, it also begs the question as to how long democracy – as America knows it – will survive under another Trump presidency.

If that sounds a bit alarmist and melodramatic, then I make no apologies, for the chances of what former US Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney described as America “sleepwalking into dictatorship”, are real enough without the need to overstate the drama.

Should Trump, as expected, find himself in a bitter rerun of his last face-off with Joe Biden on November 5 this year, it will be a crucial day for America and the world.

In fact, even if it were not for this year’s momentous US presidential contest and the concerns it throws up, 2024 is set to be a testing one across the world for the future of democracy.

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More than half the global population is potentially voting in presidential or legislative elections this year. In all, an incredible two billion people will participate in more than 75 national elections, in what one commentator called democracy’s “Super Bowl.”

From the most populous – India – to one of the least – Palau – a diverse array of countries will hold national elections.

Some of these polls will be justifiably celebrated as evidence of the people’s power, but others are almost certain to be laden with strife, or simply, a pretence of democracy rather than an expression of political free will. But, whatever way you cut it, collectively, their outcomes will determine who controls and directs the world for years ahead.

It’s sometimes said that the only elections that matter are the ones on your doorstep. Listening to some of my fellow Scots talk in these terms about independence being the only vote that matters is understandable. I certainly share their desire for the question of Scotland’s sovereignty to be put to the test sooner, rather than later. I firmly believe too, that the Scottish people see the writing on the wall and recognise why the need to control our affairs is more pressing than ever.

But, it would be politically remiss and naive not to also recognise the extent to which Scotland’s fortunes are inextricably connected to the rest of the world, and therefore, the outcome of the democratic process in other lands matters quite simply because it so often impacts far beyond territorial boundaries.

These coming global elections are a political barometer of our times. They will tell us much about the state of the world we live in or might have to live in. Some, for example, will take place in countries where autocracy has already taken root.

Russia, Belarus, Iran and Venezuela, are all examples of countries rated as “not free” in the Freedom of the World 2023 report, published by the non-profit organisation, Freedom House.

It’s worth mentioning also that one of the other countries on the list is Rwanda. Yes, that same Rwanda the Tory government never tires of telling us will be a safe haven for those asylum seekers, and other vulnerable people it seeks to “transfer” to the African state.

But going back to the issue of this year’s elections and the tests it throws up for democracy, almost everywhere you look, the signs are far from good.

Across the world, there is no shortage of those leaders making the case that what their country needs is a “strongman” – it invariably is a man – and that authoritarianism is the preferred option that will make people’s lives better.

This past year, the world has seen a high percentage of new military coups and other attempts to undermine representative government. From Burkina Faso to Brazil, and Tunisia to Peru, such a threat has unfolded while ongoing repression and the diminishing of basic liberties bedevils places like Guinea, Myanmar, Turkey and Thailand among a raft of others.

The bottom line here is that so many of this year’s elections will be defined by an ongoing democratic recession.

They too take place against the backdrop of widespread geopolitical strife and conflict, from Ukraine to Gaza and Niger to Sudan, which only heightens the stakes. Then there is the ominous contributing element to elections contested in a global arena awash with disinformation.

At the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (WEF), held in Davos, Switzerland, this week, concern about how disinformation may threaten elections and the global health of democracy has been high on the agenda.

It says a lot that in the WEF’s 2023 risk report, disinformation was not even included in the top 10 biggest threats, either in the short term (two years from now) or in the long term (10). This year, the WEF ranks it the biggest short-term risk, and the fifth-biggest long-term risk.

And so, as we move into 2024, this run of elections should, in theory, be a cause for celebration that democracy is alive and well. But the reality tells a very different story. One in which these ballots will be carried out against a global landscape of economic uncertainty, increasing conflict, lurking autocracy and democratic backsliding.

As an idea, democracy it would appear, remains the most powerful of political hopes and aspirations and for that reason alone the need to counter any erosion of its fundamental values has never been more imperative.

Last Saturday, all eyes were on Taiwan’s elections where the victory of Lai Ching-te has angered China, who see its new leader as a “dangerous separatist.” In June, we have the prospect of the European Parliament elections, where a sharp rightward turn would have profound implications for EU foreign policy. Then of course, in November, comes arguably the most significant of all in terms of geopolitics – the US presidential election.

With the starting gun now fired, it’s no exaggeration to say that in 2024 democracy will be tested in ways rarely seen in modern times.

Vigilance will be vital if the world is not to become an even more dangerous place than it is right now.