THE US presidential election will run across all 50 states on Tuesday – but experts say it's likely that just seven will decide who is the next president in the United States.
Polls suggest that there is a clear winner in most states – leaving a handful of "swing states" that could be won by either Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump.
These states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, have drawn significant attention from both campaigns – especially in the final week before the election.
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Of the 248 campaign stops this election season, 232, or 94%, were made in these states – despite only 18% of the US population living there.
Swing states change over time – for example, at the 2016 election, many experts considered Iowa, Ohio and Florida to be among them, while Georgia was off the list.
This election's roster of swing states is the same as in 2020, where most were won by either side by very slim margins.
Many of these states will not have official winners for days, but US news organisations will call some – predicting which campaign has won there – in the hours after the election.
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It's possible that a winner will be clear by Friday mid-morning UK time – but depending on how close the races in the swing states are, it could be days, or even weeks until one is know.
There's an important caveat to all this – though unlikely, it is possible that a state thought to be uncompetitive could go in an unexpected direction.
If that happens, we'll tell you all about it in our election night live blog.
What's going on in the swing states?
Pennsylvania
Polls close 1.00 UK time
Pennsylvania, the largest swing state with 19 votes, has drawn 59 visits from either campaign – the largest of any state this year.
Both Harris and Trump made visits in the state during the last full day of campaigning on Wednesday, with Harris spending the entire day there.
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Joe Biden flipped the state from Trump by just 81,000 votes in 2020, with most news networks only calling the race – and the presidential campaign – four days after the election.
A call this time around may be similarly delayed, due to new laws that prohibit early votes from being tabulated before election day.
Georgia
Polls close midnight UK time
Georgia is tied for second place in size at 16 electoral votes, but will likely deliver a winner sooner than Pennsylvania.
Both campaigns have made a combined total of 24 visits to the state, which Biden won in a swing of just over 10,000 from Trump in 2020.
The state's government expects that 90% of ballots will be counted by 3.30am on Friday.
North Carolina
Polls close 12.30 UK time
North Carolina with its 16 electoral votes has been hotly contested by both campaigns.
It was the only swing state Trump won in 2020, holding it by a margin of over 100,000 votes.
Hurricane Helene, which struck the state in September and killed 101 people, has been a major talking point in the presidential campaign there.
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Trump has attempted to capitalise on a sense of malaise towards the federal government's response to the disaster.
Both campaigns have visited a total of 38 times, including several times each since the hurricane struck.
Estimates suggest that 98% of ballots will be processed by 6.00am, which may be enough for news organisations to call the race.
Michigan
Polls close at 1.00 or 2.00 UK time, depending on polling location time zone
Harris will be looking to hold Michigan's 15 electoral votes after Biden won the state by over 100,000 votes in 2020.
It has drawn in 41 campaign stops, the second highest of any state this year.
It could take a while to get a clear picture of the race in the state.
Major cities are expected to declare a winner in the vicinity of 5.00 UK time, but some areas could take longer.
Arizona
Polls close 2.00 UK time
Biden won Arizona's 11 electoral votes by the skin of his teeth in 2020, with a margin of just 10,457 votes.
Harris will be hoping to keep the state blue for a second year running, while Trump will hope to win it again as he did in 2016.
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Both campaigns have made 19 stops in the state, where immigration is a salient issue for voters.
The state may take a long time to call – state officials predict that it could take between 10 and 13 days to process mail-in ballots.
Wisconsin
Polls close 2.00 UK time
Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes have been closely fought, with both campaigns stopping there a total of 36 times.
Most ballots in historic races have been counted by 6.00 UK time, however local laws around counting of absentee ballots may mean the state cannot quickly be called.
Nevada
Polls close 3.00 UK time
Nevada's six electoral votes make it the smallest of the swing states.
Despite its size, it has still roped in 15 visits from presidential campaigns this season, compared with one to its neighbouring California.
The state's high vote-by-mail percentage, along with other factors, means that it may be days before a substantial number of ballots are counted.
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