PROFESSOR John Curtice has issued his verdict on the 2026 Holyrood elections – saying it is currently “up in the air”.
The eminent polling expert, who works at the University of Strathclyde, further said that Labour’s “weakness” in opposition had been exposed since taking power after the July General Election.
Curtice suggested that the question of who emerges victorious in 2026 will come down to “who wins the blame game”.
The professor’s comments came as he spoke to The National’s sister paper the Greenock Telegraph about his recent move to Port Glasgow, where his wife is the rector of St Mary's Episcopal Church.
Asked about the area, Curtice praised the “glorious” vistas, saying: "The view is superb and changes all the time, with the sun over the Argyll hills.”
When the conversation turned to politics, Curtice said that "Labour's weakness in opposition has been exposed in Government”.
Curtice said that key issues such as the NHS were a problem for both the SNP Government in Edinburgh and the Labour Government in London.
He suggested that the winner of the 2026 Holyrood election would be the party that could best convince the electorate that the blame for such issues lies with the other government.
"Both sides are in the same predicament, it's who wins the blame game,” Curtice said.
Curtice’s comments come after polling showed the SNP and Labour to be neck-and-neck in voting intention for the 2026 Holyrood election.
Research by Survation, commissioned by campaign group Scotland in Union and published last month, showed the SNP and Labour tied at 28% in the constituency vote among likely voters.
Labour had 25% support on the list vote, one point ahead of the SNP's 24%.
Curtice’s analysis of a different poll in August predicted that the SNP would return 41 MSPs to Labour’s 40, a situation which was predicted to lead to Anas Sarwar becoming first minister due to support from other parties.
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