New figures show unions are yet to make up for membership drop

However, the increase in the number of members of 89,000 from 2022, only goes part of the way to making up for the previous fall in membership of 200,000 in 2022. And density still remains at the lowest level since 1995, with 6.4 million people in a trade union.

Figures published by the UK Government last week showed the fall in overall membership in 2022 was mainly due to women in the private sector leaving unions. By contrast, in 2023, the overall rise was driven by the number of male employees who were union members increasing by 172,000, to around 2.9 million. The number of female employees who were union members fell by 83,000 to 3.5 million.

Moreover, the overall increase was driven by a rise in the number of private-sector members, up 100,000 on the year to 2.5 million in 2023, with a small fall in membership of 12,000 in the public sector (leaving a 3.8 million total). The drop in the public sector was the result of a fall in the number of women members.

Union density in the private sector increased from 12% in 2022 to 12.3% in 2023, and from 48.5% to 49.2% in the public sector.

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The proportion of employees who were union members rose in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The biggest increase was of 2.6% in Scotland, giving a density of 28.8%. Density in England remained the same at 20.9%. Density in Wales and Northern Ireland remained higher than that in Scotland.

Putting all this together, several significant points are apparent. First, it would be wrong to think that strikes alone – as an indication of unions finally standing up for their members and taking militant action – build union membership.

From June 2022 and until February this year, more than five million days were not worked due to strikes. In the seven months of 2022 covered by the figures, 2.4 million days were not worked. In the whole of 2023 the total was 2.8 million.

But this does not mean that all union members and potential members were involved in these strikes. So, in some sectors where strike action was absent or almost absent, there would have been no close at hand and meaningful demonstration of unions standing up for their members.

Second, what also has to be factored in is the result of the strikes. Strikes that do not win their bargaining objectives and involve a disproportionate sacrificing of wages are not good for recruiting or retaining members.

Not all unions pay strike pay and very few have won pay rises that were equal to or above the level of inflation. Long, drawn-out strikes are also not that appetising. Only in a few cases did selective action by some strategically placed workers on behalf of others sweeten this pill.

So, unions are very far from being out of woods yet. The fall in membership levels in 2022 was a shock and the slight rise in 2023 does not undo this. Many would have expected union membership to be have experienced roaring increases of the hundreds of thousands.

Indeed, some unions’ memberships are still declining while others are running quite fast just to stand still.

Even a public sector union such as the Public and Commercial Services (PCS) union, which had a 10,000 membership increase between September 2022 and September 2023 has still seen its density decline – by nearly 5%.

This means its bargaining leverage will decline and may go some way to explaining why, in its recent ballot for industrial action, 107 of its 171 membership bargaining units balloted (including most of the largest ones) did not make the 50%+1 legally required turnout threshold for a lawful mandate for action.

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A likely majority Labour Westminster government on July 5 will not be a “white knight”, riding over the hill, to save the unions. Although the party’s New Deal for Working People (now renamed Make Work Pay) will be of much help, this depends on assuming it will be implemented in full and quickly.

This is doubtful, as the things unions desperately need – such as access to workplaces for recruiting members, an easier method by which to gain statutory union recognition, the right to compulsory sectoral bargaining – will take ages to be consulted on and be agreed.

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have made it clear that business will have a big say in what the character and content of these particular proposals will be. To say the “devil will be in the detail” over processes and thresholds is very true. If the Blair “new” Labour employment law reforms were any guide, the pledges will be watered down significantly at the behest of the likes of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).

Between now and the July 4, the unions affiliated to Labour must refuse to contribute funding or bodies or help the election campaign unless cast-iron guarantees are given on these matters.

Gregor Gall is a visiting professor of industrial relations at the University of Leeds and author of Mick Lynch: The Making Of A Working-Class Hero (Manchester University Press, 2024)