THE result of every constituency in Scotland has been predicted by new modelling from a top magazine.

The Economist’s UK General Election tracker and probability model anticipates a major landslide for Labour.

Keir Starmer’s party are given an 87% chance of winning a majority in the House of Commons, with a 12% chance of being the largest party but in the minority.

The Tories are given a 1% chance of being the largest party but without a majority, and a less than 1% chance of winning a majority.

Over Great Britain’s 632 Westminster seats (excluding the 18 in Northern Ireland), The Economist predicts that Labour will win 372 seats to the Tories’ 198.

In Scotland specifically, the modelling predicts the SNP will win 33 seats, a majority of the 57 seats up for grabs north of the Border.

Labour are predicted to win 17 seats, while the LibDems win four seats and Conservatives three.

The Economist’s modelling for the SNP is somewhere in between two recent MRP polls, from YouGov and Survation.

The earlier Survation MRP modelling suggested the SNP would win 41 Scottish seats, while the YouGov version of the same model said the SNP could win 19.

The results of every Scottish seat, as predicted by The Economist’s probability modelling are: 

  • Aberdeen North – Very likely SNP hold
  • Aberdeen South – Likely SNP hold
  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East – Conservatives slight favourites to hold
  • Airdrie and Shotts – Likely Labour gain
  • Alloa and Grangemouth – Very likely SNP hold
  • Angus and Perthshire Glens – Likely SNP hold
  • Arbroath and Broughty Ferry – Very likely SNP hold
  • Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber – Likely SNP hold
  • Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock – Likely SNP hold
  • Bathgate and Linlithgow – Likely SNP hold
  • Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – Conservatives slight favourites to hold
  • Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross – SNP slight favourites to hold
  • Central Ayrshire – Likely SNP hold
  • Coatbridge and Bellshill – Likely Labour gain
  • Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy – Likely Labour gain
  • Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch – SNP slight favourites to hold
  • Dumfries and Galloway – SNP slight favourites to gain
  • Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – Conservatives slight favourites to hold
  • Dundee Central – Likely SNP hold
  • Dunfermline and Dollar – SNP slight favourites to hold
  • East Kilbride and Strathaven – SNP slight favourites to hold
  • East Renfrewshire – Likely SNP hold
  • Edinburgh East and Musselburgh – Labour slight favourites to gain
  • Edinburgh North and Leith – SNP slight favourites to hold
  • Edinburgh South – Very likely Labour hold
  • Edinburgh South West – Likely SNP hold
  • Edinburgh West – Likely LibDem hold
  • Falkirk – Very likely SNP hold
  • Glasgow East – Labour slight favourites to gain
  • Glasgow North – Labour slight favourites to gain
  • Glasgow North East – Likely Labour gain
  • Glasgow South – Labour slight favourites to gain
  • Glasgow South West – Labour slight favourites to gain
  • Glasgow West – Labour slight favourites to gain
  • Glenrothes and Mid Fife – SNP slight favourites to hold
  • Gordon and Buchan – SNP slight favourites to gain
  • Hamilton and Clyde Valley – SNP slight favourites to hold
  • Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West – Labour slight favourites to gain
  • Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire – Very likely SNP hold
  • Kilmarnock and Loudoun – Likely SNP hold
  • Livingston – SNP slight favourites to hold
  • Lothian East – Very likely Labour gain
  • Mid Dunbartonshire – LibDems slight favourites to gain
  • Midlothian – Likely Labour gain
  • Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey – Likely SNP hold
  • Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke – Labour slight favourites to gain
  • Na h-Eileanan an Iar – Labour slight favourites to gain
  • North Ayrshire and Arran – Very likely SNP hold
  • North East Fife – LibDems slight favourites to gain
  • Orkney and Shetland – Likely LibDem hold
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire North – SNP slight favourites to hold
  • Paisley and Renfrewshire South – SNP slight favourites to hold
  • Perth and Kinross-shire – Very likely SNP hold
  • Rutherglen – Likely Labour gain
  • Stirling and Strathallan – Very likely SNP hold
  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine – SNP slight favourites to gain
  • West Dunbartonshire – SNP slight favourites to hold

On their methodology, The Economist states: “National polls do not convert easily on a one-to-one basis to seats in Parliament. For example, in 1997 the Labour Party won 63% of the seats on 43% of the vote.

“Our model takes the simple principle of ‘uniform national swing’ – the idea that support for parties rises and falls across all constituencies in the nation by the same magnitude – and augments it with specific regional polling, where it is available, from Scotland, Wales, London and so on.”

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It adds: “To estimate seats in Parliament from polling, first we trained a model using 9398 individual constituency-level election results between 1959 and 2019 along with polling data.

“We fit a multinomial logistic regression model using the LASSO method, a statistical technique that eliminates or reduces the impact of certain variables in order to maximise accuracy on unseen data.”