A MASSIVE new poll has predicted the results of every seat in Britain at the next General Election.
The YouGov survey of more than 18,000 people found that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party would be in for a landslide election victory similar to that won by Tony Blair in 1997.
The Tories are predicted to face a dire result, returning just 155 MPs, according to the poll.
The poll further predicted that, in Scotland, the SNP are not set to win a majority of seats and will trail behind Labour.
For Scotland, the YouGov survey predicted:
- The SNP would win 19 seats
- Labour would win 28 Scottish seats
- The Tories would win five Scottish seats
- The LibDems would also return five MPs
In the next General Election, Scotland will return 57 MPs – not 59 – due to boundary changes.
The YouGov analysis uses the multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) method of polling.
The results of every Scottish seat, as predicted by the YouGov MRP survey, are:
- Aberdeen North – SNP hold
- Aberdeen South – SNP hold
- Aberdeenshire North and Moray East – Conservative hold
- Airdrie and Shotts – Labour gain from SNP
- Alloa and Grangemouth – SNP hold
- Angus and Perthshire Glens – SNP hold
- Arbroath and Broughty Ferry – SNP hold
- Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber – SNP hold
- Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock – Labour gain from SNP
- Bathgate and Linlithgow – Labour gain from SNP
- Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – Conservative hold
- Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross – LibDem gain from SNP
- Central Ayrshire – SNP hold
- Coatbridge and Bellshill – Labour gain from SNP
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy – Labour gain from SNP
- Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch – Labour gain from SNP
- Dumfries and Galloway – Conservative hold
- Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – Conservative hold
- Dundee Central – SNP hold
- Dunfermline and Dollar – Labour gain from SNP
- East Kilbride and Strathaven – Labour gain from SNP
- East Renfrewshire – Labour gain from SNP
- Edinburgh East and Musselburgh – Labour gain from SNP
- Edinburgh North and Leith – Labour gain from SNP
- Edinburgh South – Labour hold
- Edinburgh South West – SNP hold
- Edinburgh West – LibDem hold
- Falkirk – SNP hold
- Glasgow East – Labour gain from SNP
- Glasgow North – Labour gain from SNP
- Glasgow North East – Labour gain from SNP
- Glasgow South – SNP hold
- Glasgow South West – Labour gain from SNP
- Glasgow West – SNP hold
- Glenrothes and Mid Fife – Labour gain from SNP
- Gordon and Buchan – Conservative hold
- Hamilton and Clyde Valley – Labour gain from SNP
- Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West – Labour gain from SNP
- Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire – SNP hold
- Kilmarnock and Loudoun – Labour gain from SNP
- Livingston – Labour gain from SNP
- Lothian East – Labour gain from SNP
- Mid Dunbartonshire – LibDem gain from SNP
- Midlothian – Labour gain from SNP
- Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey – SNP hold
- Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke – Labour gain from SNP
- Na h-Eileanan an Iar – Labour gain from SNP
- North Ayrshire and Arran – SNP hold
- North East Fife – LibDem gain from SNP
- Orkney and Shetland – LibDem hold
- Paisley and Renfrewshire North – SNP hold
- Paisley and Renfrewshire South – Labour gain from SNP
- Perth and Kinross-shire – SNP hold
- Rutherglen – Labour gain from SNP
- Stirling and Strathallan – SNP hold
- West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine – SNP gain from Conservatives
- West Dunbartonshire – Labour gain from SNP
The news comes just days after a separate MRP by the polling firm Survation suggested the SNP would win 41 Scottish seats.
Across the UK as a whole, the YouGov survey predicted:
- Labour would win 403 seats
- The Tories would win 155 seats
- The LibDems would return 49 MPs
- The SNP would return 19 MPs
- Plaid Cymru would win four seats
- The Greens would win one seat
- Reform UK would come second in 36 constituencies, but not win any
New YouGov MRP – Labour set to win more than 400 seats
— YouGov (@YouGov) April 3, 2024
Labour: 403 (+201 since GE2019)
Conservatives: 155 (-210)
Lib Dems: 49 (+38)
SNP: 19 (-29)
Plaid: 4 (=)
Greens: 1 (=)
Reform UK: 0 (=)https://t.co/OsyOEUzb0L pic.twitter.com/acJwFG2RI0
The model is based on vote intention data collected and analysed by YouGov from 18,761 British adults interviewed from March 7-27.
The YouGov analysis found that prominent Tory figures including Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Iain Duncan Smith, and Jacob Rees-Mogg would be on course to lose their seats.
You can find the full tables for the whole of Britain on the YouGov website.
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