THE SNP would lead Labour by seven points and win 40 Scottish seats if a General Election were held tomorrow, a new poll has found.

The Ipsos survey suggested the SNP would win 39% of the vote to Labour's 32%. This would translate to 40 seats for Humza Yousaf's party and 13 for Keir Starmer's, according to the accompanying seat projection.

The poll also had bad news for the Conservatives, who polled at just 14% with projections suggesting this would cut Rishi Sunak’s party to just two Scottish seats. After the defection of Lisa Cameron, the party currently has seven.

The Ipsos poll predicted a 6% vote share for the LibDems in Scotland, which would give them two seats. The Greens and “other parties” both polled at 4%.

Elsewhere, the survey put support for Scottish independence at 53%, against 47% for the Union.

Holyrood voting intention

The SNP would lead Labour by nine points in the constituency voting intention at a Holyrood election, the poll found.

Yousaf’s party were on 39%, the same as for Westminster voting intention, while Labour were on 30%.

The Tories polled at 14%, the LibDems 7%, the Greens 6%, and other parties 5%.

On the regional list, the SNP also lead but only by two points. Labour would win 31% of the vote, the poll suggested, to the SNP’s 33%.

Elsewhere on the regional list, the Tories polled at 13%, the Greens on 11%, the LibDems on 7%, and other parties on 5%.

The National: Generic picture of a ballot box

Trust in the parties

The SNP were the most trusted party on a range of issues, the polling found. However, Labour were narrowing the gap. 

A total of 32% trust the SNP most to manage the NHS in Scotland, while 27% trust Labour most on this issue. 

Some 30% trust the SNP most to tackle the cost of living crisis, while 23% trust Labour.

The polling had more bad news for the Tories, with just 9% of voters saying they would trust them to manage Scotland’s NHS – five points lower than the number of voters who back the party.

Only 11% of Scots said they would trust the Conservatives to manage the education system or tackle the cost of living crisis.

What the pollsters are saying

Emily Gray, the managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said that although the SNP were leading, the polls were showing a closing gap with Labour that could worry the party.

Gray said: “These results underline that while the Labour Party is making considerable headway in Scotland, the party’s leadership should not be complacent about the SNP as an electoral force.

"Humza Yousaf’s party still has a lead on voting intention for both Westminster and Holyrood elections and is the party that the Scottish public trust most to manage the NHS, the economy, education and the cost of living crisis.

"The direction of travel will worry the SNP, as Labour has been gaining ground across a range of policy issues while trust in the SNP has been on the wane.

"Given the profile of marginal seats in Scotland, even small changes in vote share can make a big difference to the final result – which means there is still much uncertainty for the parties at this point in an election year.”

The Ipsos poll surveyed 1005 Scots adults from January 25-31, 2024.