SUPPORT for Scottish independence has held steady, but the SNP and Scottish Labour are neck and neck, new polling data has found.

Released by True North on Wednesday, the new poll shows support for independence has stuck on 48% since the last time the question was asked by Survation for the communications firm.

Support for No has also remained steady on 52%. The results are therefore the same as the previous Survation poll for True North, which was published in May.


In Westminster, SNP are still leading with 37% of the vote, but Labour are breathing down their necks on 35%.

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Polling guru Professor John Curtice (above) said that the result for Scottish Labour was enough to put the party at a record position since the independence referendum in 2014.

He added that the result could translate to "two dozen" Scottish seats for Keir Starmer's party after the next General Election.

However, Curtice also said that very small swings in the lead up to an election could have a major impact on the number of seats won by each party.

The Conservatives were trailing far behind on 16%, and the LibDems were polling on just 6%. Just under 5% of respondents said they would vote for another party.

Curtice estimated that on these vote shares the SNP and Labour would both win 24 seats, while the Tories held onto their six and the LibDems won five.


Curtice said that this poll showed that the combined MSPs from the SNP and the Greens would not command a majority in the Scottish Parliament after a new election.

The polling guru said this was largely down to the weakness of the SNP, while the Greens continue to do well out of being in government.

The Survation polling found that, in the Holyrood constituency vote, the SNP won 39%, Labour 34%, the Tories 16%, and the LibDems 8%. A total of 4% said they would vote for another party.

In the Holyrood list vote, the SNP and Scottish Labour both polled at 30%. The Tories polled on just half that on 15%, while the LibDems and the Greens both scored 9%.

Reform UK polled at 5% while just 2% said they would give their list vote to another party.

Curtice said that the polling showed there would not be an SNP-Green majority, but there also would not be a Labour-LibDem majority. As such, he said that the Conservatives could find themselves the "kingmakers" in the Scottish Parliament. 

Curtice estimated there would be 49 SNP MSPs, 42 from Labour, 17 Tories, 11 LibDems, and 10 Greens.

The SNP-Green governing deal

The polling found that the public as a whole do not support the SNP-Green governing deal at Holyrood, but many of those polled will have voted for opposition parties.

Curtice said that: "Twice as many SNP voters approve of the deal [54% vs 23%] … but there is a non-trivial minority who are not that enamoured with the deal that it currently ruling the roost at Holyrood."

Overall, 29% of the public approve of the deal, 21% neither support nor oppose it, and 40% disapprove. 


Curtice said that the popularity rankings may be the most disappointing part of the poll for the SNP, as it puts party leader Humza Yousaf on -22. 

Douglas Ross, the Scots Tory group leader, was even further in the negative on -26.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar fared slightly better, but still scored in the negative on -3.

Professor Curtice said that Yousaf was finding it hard to pull in new voters to support the SNP and suggested he may be slightly "politically exposed" as a result. 

The Survation poll asked 1022 Scottish adults aged 16 or over for their views. It was conducted from August 15-18. The figures reported above are weighted by likelihood to vote with don't knows removed, other than the popularity ratings and the support for the SNP-Green deal.