The UK is expected to be the second slowest-growing economy in the G7 this year, the International Monetary Fund has said, despite a major upgrade to the country’s prospects.
A new IMF forecast expects the UK’s output to grow by 0.4% during 2023, faster than Germany, but slower than any other country in the Group of 7 (G7).
It is an upgrade by 0.7 percentage points compared to the IMF’s previous forecast. Consumption was stronger than expected and Brexit uncertainty had reduced, the IMF said.
Growth in the US is expected to be the most rapid of all G7 countries at 1.8%, the IMF said on Tuesday.
This will be followed by Canada (1.7%), Japan (1.4%), Italy (1.1%), France (0.8%), the UK (0.4%) and Germany, where output is expected to shrink 0.3%.
Across all advanced economies, which includes the G7 and other countries, growth is expected to drop from 2.7% to 1.5% in 2023, the IMF said.
It expects global growth to reach 3.0%.
READ MORE: SNP North East Scotland regional assembly date and location confirmed
“Growth in the United Kingdom is projected to decline from 4.1% in 2022 to 0.4% in 2023, then to rise to 1.0% in 2024,” the IMF said.
“This is an upward revision of 0.7 percentage points for 2023, reflecting stronger-than-expected consumption and investment from the confidence effects of falling energy prices, lower post-Brexit uncertainty (following the Windsor Framework agreement), and a resilient financial sector as the March global banking stress dissipates.”
It is the latest in a series of IMF forecasts which expect the UK to lag behind many international peers this year.
But the Government has previously pushed back against this, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt being overheard by Sky News in April telling IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva that “we’re very focused on proving you wrong”.
On Tuesday the Treasury said: “The IMF have praised the UK’s decisive action to fight inflation, and today’s report confirms a big upgrade to our growth forecast compared to April, with the UK set to grow at the same rate as the United States and Japan next year.
READ MORE: Scotland reacts as UK mulls independence campaign 'sanctions'
“The IMF also say it’s important to rebuild our finances and maintain financial stability; that’s why we have a clear plan to halve inflation this year, grow the economy and get debt falling.”
On Tuesday, the IMF said that most of the countries in the world are prioritising attempts to reduce inflation.
“Following the build-up of gas inventories in Europe and weaker-than-expected demand in China, energy and food prices have dropped substantially from their 2022 peaks, although food prices remain elevated,” it added.
The IMF also said that a push on green investment was needed to make sure that there is enough energy to meet countries’ green targets.
IMF director of research, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said: “The global economy continues to gradually recover from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“In the near term, the signs of progress are undeniable.
READ MORE: POLL: Should Yes be on the ballot paper at the next election?
“The Covid-19 health crisis is officially over, and supply-chain disruptions have returned to pre-pandemic levels.
“Economic activity in the first quarter of the year proved resilient, despite the challenging environment, amid surprisingly strong labour markets.
“Energy and food prices have come down sharply from their war-induced peaks, allowing global inflation pressures to ease faster than expected.
“And financial instability following the March banking turmoil remains contained thanks to forceful action by the US and Swiss authorities.”
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel