CANADA, Australia, Jamaica, and other countries with King Charles as their head of state would vote to become republics if referendums were held tomorrow, extensive new polling has found.

In total, six of the fourteen “Commonwealth realms” would vote to remove the British monarchy, while eight would keep them in place.

Of the UK’s four nations, England, Scotland, and Wales would vote to keep the royals as heads of state, while Northern Ireland would vote to become a republic, according to the Lord Ashcroft polls.

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Overall, 22,701 adults were interviewed in February and March 2023 in the 15 countries in which King Charles is head of state. It was found that:

In the UK:

  • England would vote by 57% to 22% to keep the monarchy
  • Wales would vote by 53% to 23% to keep the monarchy
  • Scotland would vote by 46% to 32% to keep the monarchy
  • And Northern Ireland would vote by 46% to 42% to remove the royals as heads of state. However, despite the pro-republic plurality, a massive 81% of people in Northern Ireland thought their country would vote to remain a monarchy in any such referendum.

The National:

Across the wider Commonwealth, six nations would vote to remove the British monarchy. These were:

  • Antigua and Barbuda (by 47% to 45%)
  • Australia (by 42% to 35%)
  • the Bahamas (by 51% to 27%)
  • Canada (by 47% to 23%)
  • Jamaica (by 49% to 40%)
  • the Solomon Islands (by 59% to 34%)

But eight of the Commonwealth nations would vote to keep Charles as head of state. These are:

  • Belize (by 48% to 43%)
  • Grenada (by 56% to 42%)
  • New Zealand (by 44% to 35%)
  • Papua New Guinea (by 51% to 45%)
  • St Kitts and Nevis (52% to 45%)
  • St Lucia (by 56% to 39%)
  • St Vincent and The Grenadines (by 63% to 34%)
  • Tuvalu (by 71% to 26%)

The results come ahead of King Charles's coronation on May 6, at which millions of people across the Commonwealth will be asked to give a "great cry" of allegiance to the monarch. 

As well as the polling, Michael Ashcroft conducted 44 focus groups with people of different backgrounds in the UK and in eight of the so-called “Commonwealth realms”: Australia, the Bahamas, Belize, Canada, Jamaica, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and the Solomon Islands.

In Scotland, 1470 adults were polled between March 3 and 15, and six focus groups were held in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen.

The research found that 58% of Scots said the monarchy felt like mostly an English thing, with 36% seeing it as something shared by the whole UK. Furthermore, 60% of Scots agreed that "in an ideal world we wouldn't have the monarchy, but there are more important things for the country to deal with".

Ashcroft, a Tory peer and former deputy chairman of the party, said the results “paint a fascinating picture not just of how the people in each of these countries see their relationship with the Crown, but how they see Britain and indeed how they see themselves”.

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He went on: “Within the UK, the position looks secure. The country would vote to keep the monarchy by a comfortable margin. After years of turmoil people especially value a constant presence above the grim spectacle of day-to-day politics, value the work of individual royals and believe the monarchy brings huge economic benefits to the nation.

“At the same time, there is wide recognition of a need to move with the times and many – especially in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and in minority communities – feel the institution is only for some types of people, not including themselves.”

The full results from the Lord Ashcroft poll can be found on his website here.

There is also an interactive map detailing the headline results across the whole of the UK and the wider Commonwealth here.