ALBA MSP Ash Regan seemingly holds the fate of the First Minister in her hands, as she looks set to be the deciding vote in the motion of no confidence lodged against him by the Scottish Conservatives.
On Thursday, SNP leader Humza Yousaf confirmed the Bute House Agreement, the power-sharing deal between the SNP and the Scottish Greens, was "terminated" with "immediate effect".
In the hours that followed, a fiery FMQs exchange resulted in the Tories, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Liberal Democrats and eventually the Scottish Greens confirming they would back the motion, which is believed to be heard in Holyrood on Wednesday.
A separate motion of no confidence in the Scottish Government was later lodged by Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar on Friday morning.
It's an interesting turn of events, as Regan (below) originally stood against Yousaf in the bid to become leader of the SNP.
But who exactly is Ash Regan?
Early beginnings
Born in Glasgow, Regan, formerly Denham, attended primary school in Scotland before moving to Biggar, Cumbria, and later Devon.
She attended Keele University in England between 1992 and 1995, leaving with a BA in international relations. Regan would later earn a diploma at the London School of Public Relations.
After leaving university, Regan worked in PR and marketing at a variety of firms as a senior accounts executive, before later moving into event management.
READ MORE: What happens if the Scottish Government loses a no confidence vote?
Regan returned to Scotland around 2012, and would later join Women for Independence and become active during the 2014 independence referendum campaign.
She would also take on the role of head of campaigns and advocacy at pro-Yes think tank Common Weal Scotland.
In August 2015 she was selected as a candidate for the SNP for the Edinburgh Eastern Constituency for the 2016 Scottish Parliament election. She replaced incumbent MSP Kenny MacAskill who stood down, defeating the leader of Scottish Labour Kezia Dugdale in the process.
Regan took 47.3% of the vote share, while Dudgale returned 33%.
Scottish Parliament career
Regan spent her first two years in Holyrood on the backbenches, appointed to the role of a parliamentary liaison officer for the culture, tourism, and external affairs brief.
She also served on the Economy, Jobs and Fair Work and Finance and Constitution Committees. In 2017, she was moved from the economy brief to the Health and Sport Committee where she held the position of deputy convener.
READ MORE: Humza Yousaf cancels speech on independence amid confidence vote row
During Sturgeon’s 2018 cabinet reshuffle, Regan was appointed minister for community safety, replacing Annabell Ewing. In 2021, Regan was re-elected, with an additional 8000 votes, and reappointed by Sturgeon to the ministerial role.
The Herald reported in 2019 that a number of former employees of Regan, while she was an MSP, received payoffs and some signed non-disclosure agreements.
When the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill made it to the third stage of reading in the Scottish Parliament, Regan resigned from her government role in protest and was replaced by Elena Whitham.
Regan was one of nine SNP MSPs who rebelled against the Government whip and voted against the reforms in 2022. She would later join a trans prisoner protest outside of Holyrood and address the crowd.
The race to become SNP leader
Regan, alongside Yousaf and Kate Forbes, ran in the SNP leadership election following the shock resignation of Nicola Sturgeon.
In her campaign, the MSP pledged to "reinvigorate" the SNP, promising more power to party members.
She also said she would aim to unite the wider Yes movement, creating a "convention" of all pro-independence groups.
READ MORE: Humza Yousaf is not 'considering his position' despite media reports, sources insist
“On my first day as leader, I will call for an independence convention to be held. This will involve all pro-independence parties, independence organisations, think tanks and civil society to organise a new independence campaign body.
“We will create a new vision of an independent Scotland. We will build coalitions, reach out across all of the society and secure a pro-independence majority, which cannot be ignored.”
She added that if pro-independence parties held “more than 50% plus one” of the vote in either a Westminster or Holyrood election then this would be a clear instruction that Scotland wishes to be an independent nation.
Regan was knocked out of the leadership race after receiving 11.1% of the vote (5599 votes) last March.
It saw Yousaf, whose own future is now on the line, elected as First Minister with 52.1% of the vote (26,032 votes) after second preference votes from those who initially voted for Regan were taken into account.
Defection to Alba
Just a few months later in October, Alba party leader Alex Salmond announced that Regan had defected to his party.
Speaking to delegates at the Alba party conference, Salmond said Regan's "addition to Alba sends a powerful message about the focus and determination we bring to achieving an independent Scotland".
She was named the party's leader in Holyrood, and is the only Alba MSP.
At the time of her defection, Regan said: "I could not, in good conscience, continue to be part of a party that has drifted from its path and its commitment to achieving independence as a matter of urgency."
Her opposition to the SNP's gender reforms has also been named as a factor behind the decision.
Does Regan hold all the cards?
When Regan defected, Yousaf described the move as “no great loss”, but she could now play a key role in determining his future.
He would simply need to secure the support of a majority of MSPs in order to survive the motion of no confidence.
If everyone takes part in the vote – and sometimes MSPs might not be able to because of ill health or other reasons – he would need at least 64 of the 129 MSPs to vote for him.
READ MORE: Inside the room as Humza Yousaf sacked the Scottish Greens from government
The SNP has 63 MSPs, leaving Yousaf one short of the minimum tally he needs to reach.
Speaking to Times Radio on Thursday, Salmond said that Regan was now "the most powerful MSP in Holyrood", as her vote could determine the future of the Yousaf's position.
Regan has set out a list of demands to Yousaf in exchange for her support, publishing a letter on Friday morning in which she said the "door was open" to the First Minister.
Yousaf is yet to respond to the letter, but it's clear that she will play an important role in the coming days and weeks as the SNP navigates a period of uncertainty.
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