THE BBC has been criticised after the editor of the Spectator, Fraser Nelson, questioned scientific modelling given to the UK Government while appearing on Good Morning Scotland.

It followed a Twitter exchange over the weekend between the journalist and the chair of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), Graham Medley, about the modelling on potential scenarios of the spread of the coronavirus – specifically about the rapid spread of the Omicron variant.

The exchange came out of a long thread that mentioned the Spectator's graphs that show Sage modelling against the results of what happened with Covid case numbers and deaths following governments imposing restrictions.

Medley had been making the point that the scenarios that scientists model are not "predictions" of what will happen but are "made to support a decision to illustrate the possibilities and uncertainty".

Nelson then asked why modellers did not include a "lower virulence" scenario where no new restrictions would have to be introduced, to which Medley responded that those scenarios "don't inform anything" and would not require a decision to be made on them.

The contentious point came when Medley told Nelson that his team "generally model what we are asked to model" by those setting government policy with a dialogue about what would be best to inform decisions.

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The exchange generated questions about the necessity of new Covid restrictions being introduced in light of the spread of the Omicron variant.

Nelson then appeared on the BBC's Good Morning Scotland (GMS) programme on Tuesday where he further questioned why best-case scenarios are not included.

The journalist's name was trending on Twitter after the interview with many asking why he was asked onto the programme to discuss epidemiology and why he was not challenged on the points he was making.

Nelson told the programme that decision-makers in government are being told about the consequences for not imposing restrictions by these models but not what will happen to the economy and other aspects if restrictions such as a circuit breaker lockdown are brought in.

The Spectator editor questioned who is asking scientists to make these models and suggested the public is being given something that "scientists have cooked up to order" and that the way decisions are being made is "very opaque".

The Omicron Covid variant first became widely recognised as causing concern due to its spread in South Africa and Nelson suggested that because of a recent decline in cases there that restrictions may not be necessary in the UK.

Nelson was then asked if the way this data is presented is damaging how people perceive risk and endangering the public health message.

He said: “I think it risks undermining faith in the science and the way decisions are made. It seems very political to me as if the data is being presented in a way where it is very hard for the average politician to understand, far less the average member of the public.

“I think there needs to be a lot more transparency if we’re living in an era where a lot of our lives are affected very much by what scientists decide. If that happens, we need to be asking, what are they being asked for these scientists and what do they think is most likely. So more transparency and a lot more scrutiny are needed in this process.”

The UK Government has said that at no point have modellers ignored evidence that would show more positive outcomes and have always been transparent about the assumptions being made in modelling.

READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon rules out further Covid restrictions before Christmas

The BBC was criticised for allowing a journalist to discuss epidemiology without an expert present to counter claims or answer the questions Nelson raises.

Journalist and author Ian Fraser said that Nelson came across as "more clueless than usual" due to his limited understanding Sage modelling and suggested they should have instead spoken to mathematician and professor of operational research Christina Pagel.

She told Times Radio that pessimistic scenarios often don't come to pass because the Government does something to stop them.

She said: "That's the whole point of doing the modelling - you do the modelling and say: 'if you do nothing this could happen'. Government says: 'well I don't want that to happen something' - they do something and it doesn't happen.

"That doesn't mean the models are wrong, it just means that they inform policy which is what they're meant to do."

Former MSP Malcolm Chisholm shared the same clip in response to Nelson's interview, saying that the "basic point" was committed by the GMS interview. Chisholm added: "Know he's had more influence on many Tory MPs than totality of scientific and medical opinion but better for GMS to stick with latter in future!"

A UK Government spokesperson said: “Throughout this unprecedented pandemic, SAGE has provided the government with a range of scenarios from positive to pessimistic to illustrate possible trajectories, not forecasts, so it can make the best possible decisions to keep the country safe.

“Modelling takes into account all of the latest available data from both the UK and internationally. We will continue to look closely at all emerging evidence – including both real-world data and expert modelling of potential scenarios – and will keep our measures under review as we learn more about this variant.”

Data from the UK Health Security Agency shows a steady increase in hospitalisations over recent weeks and officials say that it is too early to reliably assess the severity of disease caused by Omicron compared to previous variants.  

Lower severity, unless it is very much lower, is only expected to slightly delay NHS capacity coming under pressure given the speed at which Omicron grows.

An hour later on the programme Rowland Kao, professor of veterinary epidemiology and data science at Edinburgh University, put Nelson's points into perspective.

Kao began by saying that there was a "fundamental misunderstanding" in the Twitter exchange that sparked the questioning of data modelling.

He said that the UK Government tells Sage modellers what is needed for them to make a policy decision to help refine the questions being asked.

When asked if modelling is bent towards a worst-case scenario, Kao said: “I wouldn’t say the modelling is skewed. There are times when worst case may be more important. That more important is decided at a different level than what modellers are doing.

"So we model the range of scenarios but one always, even when one is being guided by the evidence of science, one is always balancing off the different aspects of good and harm that are done by the different scenarios.

“For example, what are the negative effects of lockdown would be one of them.”

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While South Africa has not imposed more restrictions in response to the emergence of Omicron, Kao said that other factors must always be taken into account when making decisions in different nations.

He said: "Keep in mind that South Africa is not Scotland. There are many differences in terms of the number of elderly people, for example, higher [in Scotland] and importantly the fact that we got the vaccines out so much earlier than so many countries means that the waning of immunity due to vaccination is greater here than in other countries which is why the boosters are so important because they’re the things that are pushing up that immunity.

“Unfortunately what the modelling is telling us right now is that [boosters] not quite fast enough. We can only do so much but it’s not fast enough to slow things down quickly enough and we’re already seeing that."

A BBC Scotland spokesperson said: "In the introduction to the interview, it was made clear that Fraser Nelson is not a Sage scientist. He also acknowledged that fact and went on to discuss points from a conversation he’d had with the chair of the Sage modelling committee.

"The programme explored the issue of scientific modelling during the pandemic and included the views of an epidemiologist on the matter in another interview.

"Good Morning Scotland has provided extensive coverage of the pandemic, examining a range of subjects on behalf of the audience, and will continue to do so."