ONE third of Scots say empty supermarket shelves and closed petrol station forecourts boost the case for Scotland to restore freedom of movement with the EU as an independent nation.
The findings come from new polling, carried out by research specialists Panelbase, revealed today.
One thousand adults living in Scotland were questioned over how the shortages of goods and petrol have affected their view of the constitutional question and the potential of renewed freedom of movement for a newly-sovereign Scotland.
As many as 35% said the situation strengthened the case “for Scotland to become an independent country and to then seek to restore freedom of movement with the countries of the European Union”.
A lesser number of 22% said it weakens that case. Another 32% said it makes no difference while 11% didn’t know.
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The polling was commissioned by blog Scot Goes Pop, and also reveals further detail about how 2014 voters feel about the issue.
All but 120 of those surveyed took part in that referendum. Most Yes voters felt the case has been strengthened, while the majority of No voters thought the opposite. But amongst those who did not vote in the indyref, a majority of 34% said the supply problems had provided new impetus for an independent Scotland in the EU. Only 16% of that group took the contrary view.
When looked at through party affiliation, almost one third (29%) of people who voted Labour in the 2019 General Election also say the position has been strengthened, as do 15% of LibDem backers. For Conservative voters, the figure was 5%.
This is in contrast to an SNP voter figure of 61%.
Fewer than half of Tory supporters (44%) said the case has now been weakened, as did 27% of people who backed Labour in 2019, 34% who favoured the LibDems and 9% of those with the SNP.
No other party affiliation was included. Communities across the country have been hit by shortages of essential goods, while there was a recent rush on forecourts as fuel supplies dwindled.
Both issues have been linked to a shortage in HGV drivers. The Road Haulage Association says there was a shortage of 60,000 drivers before Covid hit. The situation was exacerbated by European workers leaving the country because of Brexit and losses during the pandemic.
Last month the UK Government was forced into an immigration
U-turn in a bid to reduce the staffing shortfall. Three-month temporary visas were made available for 5000 lorry drivers, but haulage leaders said that wasn’t enough. The RHA now estimates the labour gap at 100,000 people and retail figures have warned that the situation could hamper supplies of seasonal goods for Christmas.
Appearing before MPs on the Transport Select Committee last week, Under-Secretary of State of Transport Baroness Charlotte Vere said the matter could be live until the end of next year. She said: “Trying to get a handle on exactly what the acute shortage of drivers are versus the long-term systemic shortage is tricky. We think it’s probably around 35,000.” And she went on: “By the end of 2022, I expect ... all being well, there should no longer be anything you can refer to as an acute crisis.”
In the same week, Richard Hughes, who chairs the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), said Brexit’s impact on the UK economy will be worse in the long term than Covid-19. Withdrawal from the EU is predicted to reduce the UK’s potential gross domestic product by 4% in the long run. In contrast, the figure for the coronavirus pandemic is 2%.
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Meanwhile, the OBR has said the public may have to deal with the fastest rise in the cost of living for 30 years, with inflation potentially hitting almost 5%.
Hughes told the BBC: “In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic.”
Analysing the poll findings for The National, James Kelly of Scot Goes Pop described the “frustration” of the “sizeable minority of voters who don’t seem to see the very obvious connection between the shortages and the arguments for independence and for restoring freedom of movement”, questioning “whether the Scottish Government and other independence campaigners have been relentless enough in making the
linkage between Brexit and the difficulties people are now facing from day to day”.
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