THE key architect of the SNP’s plans for an independent Scotland has dismissed claims that Scots will face problems getting mortgages after leaving the UK as “absurd”.
Economist Andrew Wilson, who headed the party’s Growth Commission, rejected a report produced by a pro-Union group which says proposals to initially retain the pound are “hugely risky” for Scotland.
Among those quoted in the analysis produced by These Islands was St Andrew’s University Professor Alan Sutherland, who argued the impact on the Scottish banking system would be such that “some borrowers will just not get mortgages anymore”.
But Wilson, a former SNP MSP, said: “The situation with our policy would be no different after independence as the pound would continue to be the currency of transaction.
“The idea that a developed economy like Scotland would not have mortgages lent, is at the absurd end of the Project Fear campaign we heard in 2014.
“The world’s debt markets are funding governments at historically low rates of interest at the moment all around the world.
“Scotland would have that support – we would have work to do to establish ourselves in international markets, but the idea people couldn’t borrow to buy their home is clearly an absurdity.”
The debate over future currency was one of the key issues of the independence referendum in 2014.
While the Scottish Government proposed a formal currency union with the rest of the UK, this was ruled out by then-Chancellor George Osborne.
The recommendations in the Growth Commission report of 2018 shaped the policy to keep the pound in the years after independence until a series of economic tests are met.
This has caused debate within the SNP, and in 2019 members voted for a new Scottish currency to be introduced “as soon as practicable” after independence day.
The These Islands report, written by John Ferry, who has previously stood as a Liberal Democrat candidate, says international economists have warned “sterlingisation” would be hugely risky for Scotland.
Wilson said the Growth Commission had also spoken to many experts of global renown and the “core” of the currency plan had been endorsed by former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King.
“It would be great to see a vision from These Islands for what the UK is going to be in the coming years, because really their only position is no matter what happens to the UK it is better than what Scotland could ever hope for,” he said.
“All of the evidence is the UK is one of the worst-performing economies in the industrialised world and the most unequal and getting worse.
“But whatever happens – Brexit or anything else – they think it is better than Scotland could ever do.
“Yet look at the countries we looked at in the report – like Denmark, like Finland, like New Zealand. All of whom have different currency positions as most countries do, but they have huge success.”
Wilson said the plans “effectively de-risked” the transition to independence in terms of currency.
In the report, Dame DeAnne Julius, a founding member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, questioned whether a parallel currency plan has ever worked elsewhere in the world.
However, Wilson said Ireland had retained sterling for six years after it became independent, until the launch of the punt currency. He added: “Of course it took until Ireland were really enthusiastic members of the European Union for their economy to really take off and diversify – and there are lessons there for us.
“Ireland was a different case a long time ago, well before the integration of financial markets that we have today. But clearly there is a precedent there for that.”
On the Growth Commission’s recommendation of bringing Scotland’s budget deficit down gradually over 10 years, These Islands says it seems clear “large-scale government spending cuts and/or tax rises would be required immediately”.
Wilson said: “We have lived with Conservative governments that we don’t vote for imposing austerity for many years.
“We know we would have to get our budget deficit into line with a sustainable position, but the priority right now and for the next five years is not that, it is on investing for recovery.”
He added: “The question for people in Scotland is do you trust the Scottish Government to lead you through the recovery and all of the other challenges we face, or does it have to be a Conservative government you don’t elect?
“That is the core democratic choice that we have got just now.”
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