Fergus Mutch: The SNP must give Scots a glimpse of what Scotland can become

So far so good. Hold steady on this tack, win big in May and onwards to independence. That’s the plan anyway.

’Tis the season for misquoting Burns, however, and from such promised joy from best laid schemes inevitable risk arises.

Snow is falling outside, the log fire is crackling, my cosy socks are donned and a contented puppy is curled up on my lap. Like everyone else, I cannot venture far from home right now. It may sound idyllic, but as a candidate in Aberdeenshire West this May it is beyond frustrating. Alongside subzero temperature, normal campaigning also remains on ice. And no amount of ­interminable Zooming will replace the sense you get for the lay of the land by ­chapping on hundreds of doors each day in the run up to poll.

The SNP is more a mass membership movement than a political party post-2014, but necessary lockdown restrictions stop us from deploying our biggest asset: our 100,000 plus activists. These difficult ­prevailing conditions, in practical if not ­political terms, favour the Tory blunderbuss strategy of glossy leaflet overload by direct mail. Write off their ugly views all you want, but the Tories are sophisticated campaigners who tend not to be short of cash from wealthy donors.

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To conclude from national swings alone that the SNP is home and dry 100 days out from the election would be to find solace in a comfort blanket of ignorance, in the warmth of a fool’s paradise.

Many people, for decent enough reasons in hoping to maximise the return of pro-independence MSPs, question the “Both Votes SNP” strategy. Why “waste” a list vote if we’re going to romp home in almost all constituency contests?

Assuming foregone conclusions, ­however, is to take voters for granted and to go all in with a duff hand.

Take the North East of Scotland for ­example. The region returns seven list MSPs, and 10 constituency members to Holyrood. Of those 10 there are six where the overlapping Westminster seat either is currently, or was until just over a year ago, held by a Tory MP. While Aberdeen and Dundee’s urban seats might be safe enough bets for the SNP, the rest are very much in play.

Besides, in the volatile political times of a pandemic, when decision-making can literally mean life or death, there are no foregone conclusions.

People are looking to governments to be surefooted, in command of the huge ­pressures on our NHS and public ­services and serious about the job ahead in ­rebuilding an economy from the deep economic shocks of the past year.

In terms of whether people trust the UK or Scottish Government to get on with that job, Holyrood had the ­upper hand before last March, the gap has widened significantly on the evidence of whose making the right calls and remains a ­gaping chasm.

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A pre-election Budget, in normal times, can often be underwhelming as all eyes are already focused on potential big ticket manifesto promises yet to come. This year is a bit different. What was required from Kate Forbes as she unveiled her ­spending plans for the year ahead at Holyrood this week were sober, sensible and serious ­proposals for recovery, supporting ­business and bolstering the NHS. She hit all the right notes, with perfect pitch.

The same day, Scotland played ­unwilling host to the second chieftain o’ the puddin race in the space of a week with the Prime Minister’s non-essential sojourn north. His trip was pointless, his pronouncements nugatory and his impact largely negligible.

While Union Jack politics tends to rile or rally either side of the political divide along preexisting lines, the attempts to play “Union Vacc” arguments into that equation are tactics worthy of the gutter. There exists a sizeable wedge of voters in the middle ground of Scottish politics, exasperated and annoyed by Brexit, but not yet entirely convinced by the case for independence. False claims that Scotland, uniquely amongst the developed nations of the world, could acquire no vaccines whatsoever are unlikely to drive them into the arms of the Conservative and ­Unionist Party.

All recent polling evidence shows that Boris Johnson is neither popular nor trusted in the eyes of Scottish voters. Meanwhile, Nicola Sturgeon is both. The Prime Minister’s advisers will be mindful of closing that gap insofar as they can. But it’s an impossibly tall order to jump start Johnson’s poll ratings by reinvention or dressing him up as anything other than the oafish Tory that he is. In turn, the only option available to them is to try to drag the First Minister and her government down. The biggest problem with Tory “vacc attacks” on the credibility of the SNP administration lie in the fact they are using arguments which themselves stretch credibility beyond breaking point. And in doing so they prove self-defeating.

While the SNP is not immune from our share of challenges right now, if the Tories keep up the unrelenting negativity then it matters little whether it comes from the mouth of Boris Johnson, Ruth Davidson or Douglas Ross — it won’t work for them.

IF Gordon Brown and Michal Gove have clobbered the Better Together merry band back together in a “Hyper Vow” third-way Royal Commission promise of panicked federalism then it is too little too late to whet popular demands for a Yes/No independence vote on the substantive question in the next few years. It won’t work for them either. So let the Unionists do their thing in vain.

Meanwhile the SNP needs to do three things to win in May.

Firstly, and thankfully thus far of lesser importance in the minds of most voters, SNP members need to renew our focus and responsibilities at the helm of the independence movement by cutting out the infighting, backstabbing, gossiping and indulgence in manufactured scandal. It is off-putting and unnecessary and risks bubbling over. Our opponents want us fighting amongst ourselves, indeed ­reports confirm their strategy relies upon us kicking each other harder than they ever could. It is high time we cut it out.

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Secondly, and most importantly in this moment, we need to govern well. We need to ensure that whatever vaccine supplies we have are rolled out to those who need them most as quickly as practicable. Demand will outstrip supply for some time yet, sure. But the sooner we vaccinate, the sooner life can return to some semblance of normal. People, ordinary people in communities the length and breadth of Scotland, are counting on us.

We need to keep the virus under control meantime, keeping our population safe and hopefully allowing businesses to reopen sooner when it becomes safe to do so. We need to demonstrate that support is reaching those who need it most and ensure that being stuck at home is no barrier to a good education for our kids.

We cannot afford to put Scotland’s deep rooted social issues of alcohol and drug abuse, homelessness and deprivation to one side just because the immediate health concerns of the pandemic seem all-consuming. The ravages of the virus have taken their toll hardest on the least well off and compounded existing inequalities. Good governance puts those people first.

Finally, we must be unmatched in our ambition for Scotland’s future. The promise we make to people in our manifesto ahead of May’s Holyrood election cannot simply rest on the laurels of 14 years in government. Nor can it be a prospectus for what we will do with the limited powers of devolution. A new routemap to independence is one thing, but a guide to the destination upon arrival is something far more compelling.

For all of this, for all in the SNP, we have 100 days of hard work ahead.