A BBC Scotland headline claiming Scotland’s unemployment rate is the highest in the UK has been criticised by a top economics expert.
Stuart McIntyre, head researcher at the Fraser of Allander Institute, explained why the data for Scotland vs the UK as a whole was “not statistically different”.
His response came as more than 600,000 people fell off UK payrolls between March and May as a result of lockdown, new figures showed.
While the headline unemployment rate between February and April stayed low at 3.9% - only a rise of 0.1% on last year – the true figures are expected to appear with time.
This is a bad take/headline. Scottish unemployment rate 4.6% (with confidence interval +/- 0.8%-points), so 'true' rate lies between 3.8% and 5.4%, UK rate is 3.9% (with CI +/- 0.2%-points), so 'true' rate lies between 3.7% and 4.1%. These overlap, so not statistically different. https://t.co/f4BJAaMswo
— Stuart McIntyre (@stuartgmcintyre) June 16, 2020
Job vacancies have also disappeared at a rapid pace, with single-month estimates indicating the number of vacancies had fallen by 60%.
At the same time the number of people claiming Universal Credit and Jobseeker’s Allowance more than doubled between March and May.
Much of the newspaper headlines this morning point to the unemployment rate remaining “unchanged” despite the lockdown – failing to consider the lag in the estimates.
This morning on the Scotland section of the BBC News website, a headline read “Scotland’s unemployment rate highest in UK”.
McIntyre retweeted the story and added his own response to it – explaining it was a “bad take/headline”.
He went on: “Scottish unemployment rate 4.6% (with confidence interval +/- 0.8%-points), so 'true' rate lies between 3.8% and 5.4%, UK rate is 3.9% (with CI +/- 0.2%-points), so 'true' rate lies between 3.7% and 4.1%. These overlap, so not statistically different.”
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon retweeted the analysis.
This morning Neil Carberry, chief executive of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, said: “The headline figures may not show it, but a lot has changed since April - with the Claimant Count rising to 2.8 million, the unemployment rate is likely to be much higher than 3.9 per cent now.”
And Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician at the ONS, added: “There is a lot going on in the labour market at the moment.
“In the two months to May we saw a 600,000 fall in the number of people on the payroll.
“So, we are starting to see a worsening, worsening labour market.”
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