A NO-DEAL Brexit risks extra trouble for the UK during an oncoming recession that could be as deep as the Great Depression, the head of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has said.
The WTO expects global trade to shrink by up to 32% this year — the same contraction seen at the start of the 1930s, when the industrialised world suffered its worst ever economic downturn.
The UK is scheduled to leave the EU at the end of the year, but there have been calls from the Scottish Government, Welsh Government and others to delay this in light of the additional economic pressures brought about by the pandemic.
On Friday, Michael Gove officially informed Brussels that Westminster will not seek an extention and is wedded to the date set.
That has increased fears that the UK may make a no-deal exit from the bloc, leaving it to trade under less-favourable WTO rules.
Today Roberto Azevedo, WTO director general, said: "The less disruption, the better. The less turbulence, the better and the less turbulence is the closest to where you were before.
"In my view, if you can maintain the degree integration and relationship that you had before Brexit, it's a less traumatic situation of course than if you have to go to WTO terms, which is not a catastrophe — all members negotiate under WTO terms, but it requires a number of adjustments and those adjustments can be painful, particularly for some sectors.
"In my view, the less changes, the better."
Azevedo told The Andrew Marr Show these include agricultural products and the car industry.
On the prospect of an agreement between the UK and EU, Avezedo said that "is not going to be easy". He went on: "Trade deals are difficult, they are sensitive.
"It's going to be really, really, really tough. There was never any doubt about that.
"But if the political will is there, if people realise that a No-Deal scenario is much less than optimal, I'm pretty sure that negotiators could do this in a reasonable way in a reasonable timeframe."
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