Grangemouth no more would be true disaster for Scotland

The words from The Proclaimers song Letter from America encapsulate the misery and devastation industrial closures wreaked across Scotland in the 1980s. It was why I quoted them in a debate last week on the potential closure of the Grangemouth refinery, asking if there was going to be an additional line: “Grangemouth No More”.

The closures in the 1980s were catastrophic and frightening. Journeying from my home in West Lothian to work in Glasgow, I was passing British Leyland, Polkemmet Colliery, Honeywell and Caterpillar, all shut and that before I’d even reached the East End of the city.

Many wondered what factory or industry would be next. The scars remain and the pain is still sorely felt. It wasn’t just individuals and the communities they lived in which were wrecked. Scottish society and its economy suffered gravely.

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That’s why the possible closure of Grangemouth is so critical and ensuring its retention is essential. It’s not simply the jobs that will be lost or what the town will suffer but the wider social and economic harm that will be inflicted across all of Scotland.

There are 500 on the payroll at the site but an additional 2000 employed as contractors. Those losses would be severe enough but it’s skilled work and the site was where many a youngster learned their trade. As with past closures, future generations will pay a price along with the current workforce.

The closure would also reverberate far wider than the site or town. Many businesses have clustered there either as part of the supply chain or feeding off the economy generated by the refinery. They include plastics, chemicals and other sectors. Profitability would be jeopardised and as with past closures the shock waves engulf others, leading to further job losses and factory closures.

Grangemouth is a national asset, and its loss would undermine the entire nation. Most importantly, though, it’s absurd that an oil-producing nation should be devoid of a refining capacity.

I asked the House of Commons to carry out research into oil-producing nations and refinery capacity. It was put into a very helpful paper by Alba Party researchers. It discloses that there is no nation among the top 25 oil-producing lands which doesn’t have a refinery capacity.

Norway, for example, has two and some countries many more. Scotland and the UK sit at 21 in that table and while the UK will retain capacity it won’t be in Scotland if it’s “Grangemouth no more”.

The only oil-producing countries which lack a refinery capacity all produce substantially less than comes from Scotland’s North Sea. Most are in developing nations such as the Republic of Congo or Trinidad and Tobago. Grangemouth’s closure would mean developing nation status rather than developing our industrial base as we should be doing.

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It’s akin to colonial exploitation. Your resource taken for a song, then sold back to you as a refined product but at a premium.

You don’t have to be a Marxist to see how important the “added value” is to the raw product. It’s where the real profits are made and also where much of the skilled work lies.

And this isn’t coffee, cocoa or rubber but oil.

Aye, oil, that natural bounty the extent and value of which Scots were denied when first discovered. And which ever since has been said to be diminishing, if not gone.

At the referendum, it went from gone to being a millstone around the neck of an independent Scotland. Yet now it’s been rediscovered and is to be the engine of reviving post-Brexit Britannia.

As Jim Sillars said: “Some nations discovered oil and made the desert bloom, Scotland discovered oil and has seen much of it made into an industrial desert.”

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We’re sleepwalking to disaster. It’s one thing not to cause unnecessary alarm but quite another not to prepare. Grangemouth’s proposed closure is only provisional for 2025 but looks set to happen unless steps are taken. That’s why Scotland needs to speak out and support the campaign being organised by the workforce and Unite the Union.

There’s been a refinery there for a century, providing for 70% of Scottish filling stations and most of Scotland’s aviation fuel.

It also covers supply into Northern England.

It’s about more than simply securing Scotland’s economy, t’s also about ensuring energy security. Becoming a dependent nation comes with huge risks, as wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have shown.

So, what needs done?

Firstly, the hydrocracker at Grangemouth, which is currently inoperable, needs restarted. That would increase profitability threefold, ending the threat of any immediate closure. Whether they come from Holyrood, Westminster or the business, funds need to be found.

Secondly, the oil that comes ashore from the North Sea must be refined at Grangemouth. Many will be shocked to learn that oil from the Forties pipeline which lands at Cruden Bay before routing south to Grangemouth isn’t refined there.

That’s currently 40% of the North Sea resource. That absurdity must cease. Technical changes are required but they must be made.

Similarly, Rosebank and any new developments should be refined there. There’s logic to using the North Sea resource rather than importing foreign oil. But the argument loses any validity if it is shipped abroad and that crosses with other vessels coming in the other direction importing fuel.

The carbon footprint is horrendous. Sunak cannot have it both ways. You can’t argue for the environmental benefit of using your own resource if you’re exporting it for refining.

Finally, there is a need to transition and that’s why steps need taken now to prepare the site for biofuels. The future is away from fossil fuels but we need to get there and prepare for that new world. Retaining the Grangemouth refinery is central to that journey for Scotland.