THERE is much speculation in social media and the press about the various ways in which an independence referendum and independence itself can at last be achieved. Ruth Wishart’s excellent analysis in Monday’s paper, supplemented by the Long Letter contributors, provides the likely consequences of this widening discussion and a specific way forward to ensure maximisation of seats in the coming Holyrood 2021 election.

Is it legitimate and sensible at this time for SNP members to seem to be creating division within the party by challenging and questioning the approach of the leadership towards achieving our indyref2, and is it heresy to think laterally at ways of maximising our MSP seats so that achieving a referendum and independence becomes a virtual foregone conclusion even for the most ardent Unionists.

READ MORE: Ruth Wishart: Ignored and impotent SNP MPs should spend more time in Scotland

It is my view that the 2021 Holyrood election is a watershed. The result must not only reflect the fact that Scottish voters return an overwhelming number of independence-supporting MSPs but do so in substantial numbers that make independence almost inevitable and the Yes percentage 51%-plus. This should reflect the SNP achieving 67-plus seats and other independence-supporting parties at least 10 seats. This would deliver around 60% of Holyrood seats. The result of this election must deliver a step change in support that “takes the breath away” of even the most belligerent Unionist sceptic.

As I have intimated in previous letters, it’s all about the NUMBERS! Is there only one approach or several approaches to achieving these target numbers? At present it has been the task of the SNP to harness the Yes vote and win the Holyrood election. On one occasion they achieved an overall majority and on other occasions a Yes majority with the support of the Greens. This secures a mandate every time for an independence referendum.

In terms of the overall vote, the argument has always been that the Unionist parties’ aggregate vote is always higher than that of the independence-supporting parties. To date this situation has prevailed, although it can be said that with the expansion of the Yes movement, overall Yes support has expanded beyond the 50% mark. SNP dominance, with the Yes movement delivering more numbers, would eventually lead to the breakthrough needed to deliver the referendum and independence.

The key drawback to this approach is frustration and impatience. Frustration with an intransigent Tory government indifferent to the politics of Scotland, and impatience with an SNP government tied to, dare I say it, “Keep calm and carry on – we will win in the end”. The Tories are playing for time, building up to unleash their “SNP bad/incompetent” strategy throughout 2020 and ensure they prevent a majority of independence-supporting MSPs.

“Both votes SNP” has not really delivered the required number of list MSPs even from large numbers of SNP second votes. Perhaps a closer critical analysis by the SNP on this policy may make it more effective and provide the tipping point needed to make it successful.

Would the “Max the Yes” initiative, where Yes-supporting groups create a Yes Alliance party to stand in all regional seats but NOT in the constituency seats, maximise the SNP constituency seats to 65+ with all Yes supporters committed to voting for the SNP in all constituencies? In the regional seats the SNP would refrain from standing list candidates. Would this action maximise the Yes Alliance and possibly Greens list MSP total and deliver 10+ seats? This approach on the face of it is quite compelling but would require close cooperation, trust and real focus by all involved. Just remember the SNP, important though it is, does not have the monopoly on how we achieve independence and the ever-important NUMBERS.

In relation to a suggested consultative referendum, SNP senior politician in-fighting, persistent sniping at the FM, Yes movement wrangling and a general feeling of unrest – these are sideshows compared to achieving the independence numbers required. They are fodder for the Union press.

Let’s get together decide our strategy and in 2021 let’s get the NUMBERS needed!

Dan Wood
Kirriemuir