One year of Steven Naismith: Hearts progress, turning points, future

The intervening 12 months have been anything but quiet. There have been triumphant highs, despondent lows and everything in between. But now that we are one year into Naismith’s tenure, it feels like a natural point to ask an obvious question: how has it all been going?

That day when the 37-year-old was parachuted into the home dugout at Tynecastle feels an awfully long time ago now. Naismith’s spell as interim manager was something of a mixed bag, after all. It all started rather inauspiciously with a 1-0 defeat at Easter Road when he was just a few days into the job. Supporters wouldn’t have to wait long for a reaction, though, as Hearts hammered Ross County 6-1 in the final pre-split fixture.

Hearts’ form book for the last five games read: won one, drew three, lost one, including draws at Ibrox and in the fourth and final derby of the season. The board had seen enough, even if some supporters weren’t fully convinced yet, and decided to give Naismith the job on a permanent basis.

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There was still one further complication, though: Naismith didn’t possess a UEFA Pro Licence, a prerequisite for coaching in European competition. To get around this, Naismith was named technical director and Frankie McAvoy was appointed as head coach. Behind the scenes at Tynecastle Park, nothing changed day-to-day – but from the outside looking in, it appeared to be an awkward arrangement and questions remained over where the buck ultimately stopped.

Naismith, though, blocked the outside noise and got on with the day job: assembling his squad for the upcoming season. Older players such as Michael Smith, Robert Snodgrass and Gary Mackay-Steven were released, Orestis Kiormotzoglou was sold, and Josh Ginnelly left for Swansea City. Suitable loan moves were found for young players on the edge of the first-team squad, such as Lewis Neilson and Harry Stone, and a few new faces were brought to Gorgie too.

The club threw their net far and wide, picking up players from all over the world rather than focusing on Scottish-based talent. Calem Nieuwenhof, Kenneth Vargas and Kyosuke Tagawa arrived in the capital from Australia, Costa Rica and Japan respectively, while Frankie Kent was recruited from Peterborough United. Loan deals were struck for Odel Offiah and Alex Lowry, plus the addition of Michael McGovern on a free transfer to flesh out Naismith’s squad.

Of all the new recruits, though, it was only Kent who would hit the ground running. The English centre-back took very little time to adapt to Scottish football, but the same can’t be said for the likes of Vargas or Nieuewnhof. The former featured frequently in the early days of his Hearts career but would have to wait until November to register his first goal or assist; the latter, meanwhile, didn’t truly hit his stride until the turn of the year.

With new signings bedding in, a fresh tactical approach instilled by the manager and important first-team players like Craig Gordon, Craig Halkett, Beni Baningime and Barrie McKay still recovering from long-term injuries, perhaps Hearts’ sluggish start to the season was understandable in hindsight. But that didn’t stop supporter unrest building nonetheless.

It’s hard to blame the fans. A thrilling aggregate win over Rosenborg offered a glimpse of what the future could hold on Naismith’s watch, but the subsequent dismantling by PAOK in the next round was chastening indeed. Add to that a poor start to the league campaign – Hearts lost to Dundee, Motherwell and St Mirren within their opening five fixtures – and it’s easy to see why some remained unconvinced by the Naismith experiment. His own words from his first interview as interim manager were regularly used as a stick to beat the former Scotland internationalist with.

“The biggest thing I’ve learned since joining Hearts, is that there’s a demand at the club,” Naismith told the club’s website. “It’s got to be a good demand, and the players have got to enjoy that. The fans want attacking football. They want a team that goes into every game trying to win it. Not one that’s going to defend and hold out for a draw or a 1-0 lead.

“I was like that as a player; I wanted to be on the front foot and enjoyed having the ball and creating opportunities. I want to play entertaining football. That’s easy to say, and harder to implement on the training pitch and in games, but that’s what I want. I’m not naive to think that this is going to be easy, but I want us to be a team that takes games by the scruff of the neck.”

It's fair to point out that the reality didn’t match up to the marketing material. The opening six games of the Premiership season had seen Hearts fail to score in four of them, and the off-field scrutiny reached fever pitch in late September. The men in maroon travelled to Rugby Park on League Cup duty and the away fans made their feelings clear about the team’s indifferent form as they took aim at the Tynecastle hierarchy. A banner was unfurled that read: ‘Funded by fans, ran by clowns. We deserve better’.

Better is exactly what they got that night as Alex Lowry’s last-gasp winner sent Hearts through to the semi-finals, offering Naismith a much-needed reprieve. It was a battling, scrappy win but the end result was all that mattered. Not many knew it at the time, but the game would be a key turning point in Naismith’s tenure.

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That win over Kilmarnock would be followed by a 1-0 win away at Ross County, buying Naismith a little more credit in the bank, before that goodwill all but evaporated in the space of 82 maddening seconds when Hearts chucked a two-goal lead in the derby. A chastening 4-1 defeat at home to Celtic followed, and it was clear that something had to change.

Then, another turning point: the 2-1 defeat at Ibrox. This was a game where Hearts were so close to securing a famous win – they were leading 1-0 as late as the 89th minute – and although the last-minute nature of the collapse stung, there were positives to take from the performance. The most significant innovation was the implementation of the back three, which would soon demonstrate its value.

A 1-0 home win over Livingston was followed by another dispiriting performance in the League Cup semi-finals as Hearts bowed out with a whimper. The final result was a 3-1 win for Rangers, which is nothing to be ashamed about, but it was the manner of the performance that was truly alarming. When all was said and done, Hearts had been comfortably dispatched while barely laying a glove on their opponents.

Serious questions were now being asked of Naismith – and he had the perfect response. Over the next few months, Hearts would embark on a remarkable run, winning 15 of their next 18 games. A 1-0 home defeat to Rangers, a 2-1 loss at Pittodrie and a 2-2 home draw with County were the only blemishes on Hearts’ copybook as the men in maroon shot up the table and opened up a healthy gap between themselves in third and the chasing pack.

During the run, various records started to tumble. The three league wins achieved on the road in the previous campaign were matched and comfortably beaten, Hearts clocked up five consecutive league wins for the first time in five years, and there was even a first Premiership victory at Celtic Park since 2007. Now, Naismith wasn’t just meeting expectations – he was surpassing them.

The run couldn’t last forever, but its abrupt end was still painful for supporters. Many made the trip to Ibrox asking if the gap between Hearts and the Old Firm was narrowing; the emphatic 5-0 win for Philippe Clement’s side suggested it was still very much a chasm. It kicked off a slightly wobbly period for Hearts where they would drop points at home to Hibs and lose at Tynecastle to County, but another 2-0 win over Celtic and Saturday’s 2-1 success at St Mirren would suggest that the team are just about back on track heading into the business end of the campaign. The win at the SMiSA Stadium meant another record fell by the wayside too as Hearts recorded a tenth away victory for the first time in 32 years.

Taking a step back and looking at the big picture, it’s hard not to be impressed. Hearts sit comfortably in third – and have done for quite some time – and only a complete disaster will deny the men in maroon their ‘best of the rest’ title. Naismith has guided the team to the semi-finals of both of the domestic cups, and the season is going pretty much as well as could reasonably be expected.

Naismith’s points-per-game is the highest return of any Hearts manager (in the top flight) for quite some time, and the team is recording clean sheets at its best rate in years. Goals were a problem during the season’s early stages and although there is still work to be done in this regard, the numbers are moving in the right direction. Put simply: by any important measure, Naismith is at the very least matching his predecessors’ achievements.

If there is one thing we have learned from Naismith’s reign, it is that the head coach is an astute tactician who is unafraid to go back to the drawing board if the situation requires it. He has proven to be flexible in a tactical sense, regularly tinkering with the team’s set-up to meet the demands of a particular opponent as opposed to sticking dogmatically to one style of play. Naismith’s in-game decisions have sparked a fair few turnarounds this season – which is obviously encouraging – but those changes also highlight a recurring problem in Gorgie this term.

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Hearts’ slow starts have been a constant theme throughout the season. Whether it was the start of the campaign where the team struggled, or that three-month period where the team could seemingly do no wrong, the issue remained: all too often, Hearts would trudge in at the break with the game goalless – or, even worse, having fallen behind. We’ve seen a few hints of progress on this front, but further strides must be taken.

It’s a similar story when it comes to creating chances. Again, this is an area that remains very much a work in progress but there have been encouraging signs since the turn of the year that Hearts’ attacking play in the final third is becoming more sophisticated. Could it be better still? Of course. But it’s important to remember that intricate passages of play that can break down a deep-lying defence takes time to instill, and there is no shortcut. It is often the final piece of the puzzle for any manager trying to drill a new style into a squad.

And then there’s Lawrence Shankland. Hearts’ No.9 is enjoying a remarkable season, becoming the first player since the great John Robertson to breach the 20-goal mark in back-to-back seasons, and it’s hard to downplay just how important the team’s talisman has been. On the one hand, Naismith deserves credit for getting the most out of the Scotland internationalist. Shankland is the Premiership’s top scorer for a reason, after all, and no player has won more points for their side as much as the 28-year-old has for Hearts this season.

But then there’s the flip-side of the argument: that Hearts are over-reliant on Shankland. He has contributed around half of the team’s goals in the league this season and other than Vargas, who has eight goals to his name in all competitions, no other player has more than four in total. There has been some progress on this front since the turn of the year as Hearts have started to spread the goals around – but with Shankland entering the final 12 months of his deal this summer and uncertainty surrounding his future in Gorgie, sticking the ball in the back of the net could quickly become a very big problem for Naismith’s Hearts. It’s fair to ask: where would Hearts be without Shankland? Is he the difference between an average season and an excellent one?

Time will tell on that front. But one thing’s for sure: Hearts are certainly moving in the right direction. The progress from this point last year to today is obvious, and this season still has the potential to finish as one of the club’s best this century. Third has been all but secured at a canter, and there is still the small matter of a Scottish Cup semi-final against Rangers looming on the horizon. Add to that that Naismith has achieved this with the youngest average age of any starting XI in the Premiership, while also blooding the likes of Aidan Denholm, Macaulay Tait, Findlay Pollock and James Wilson, and the future looks bright indeed. The progress and development of players such as Vargas, Nieuwenhof and Alan Forrest would also suggest that Naismith can fulfil that fundamental requirement of any manager: to improve the players he has through astute coaching on the training pitch.

Naismith’s spell as head coach hasn’t been perfect but the strides the team have taken over the past 12 months are obvious. Hearts are firmly on track for one of their best seasons in decades, and it couldn’t come at a better time with the European group stage carrot. Naismith’s appointment was undoubtedly a gamble from the Hearts board but it has paid off handsomely. The 37-year-old has established himself as one of the most promising up-and-coming managers in Scotland, and maybe even the whole UK.

He’s beaten the Hibees and Celtic. He’s done things we never expected. Just imagine what he could do with a little more time.