IF my experience of the past year of analysing and discussing Scottish polling has taught me anything, it’s that online commentary around polls generates a lot of noise and not much illumination. The response to the latest Ipsos MORI poll showing Yes on 52% (up +5 since May) and No on 43% (down -4) is no different.

Cutting through the noise, why might Ipsos MORI’s findings be different from other polls, and what can we learn from them?

Ipsos MORI conducts its interviews by telephone. They dial random phone numbers, and if you pick up and opt to be interviewed, you’re interviewed. This is not completely random – they recruit in proportion with many demographics so that the sample is representative of the population – but it is still very different from every other pollster in Scotland, who conduct online polls from a sample of their online panel members.

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This kind of difference in approach can produce different results, which is exactly why we can’t compare polls from different pollsters as if they’re like-for-like. In other words, we can’t say that this poll is wrong because it contradicts other polls. Instead, we should look at two things: the margins of error, and the direction of travel.

Historically, polls have typically gotten within 4-5% points of actual election results in the UK. With that margin of error, this poll is telling us that we are 90% confident that somewhere between 47% and 57% of Scots would vote Yes in an independence referendum, and somewhere between 38% and 48% would vote No, with the rest undecided.

That means that the tighter scenario many other polls have found could still be the reality on the ground. But, taking everything together, Yes looks like it probably has a lead of at least a couple of percentage points.

This represents a change from Ipsos MORI’s last poll in May, which showed that it was most likely that Yes and No were neck-and-neck on around 47% of the vote each.

So, we can say that Yes has probably pulled ahead, but that we need to keep looking at future polls and further polling by Ipsos MORI to see if this becomes a trend.

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Today’s poll is, however, a resounding rejection of the notion that independence isn’t a top issue for Scots. Unlike many pollsters, who give voters a list of issues to pick from, Ipsos MORI ask them what the most important issue facing Scotland is and allow them to give their top-of-mind answer. This is a more organic, and, in my view, accurate measurement of what matters to people.

Ipsos found that the constitution remains the second top issue on Scots’ minds, trailing only the NHS as we head into winter.

While there is uncertainty over whether Yes is pulling ahead, the constitutional issue – and the prospect of independence – isn’t going away any time soon.