THE SNP are today on course for a record fourth term in Holyrood after winning target seats from Labour and the Tories.

However, party leader Nicola Sturgeon – who comfortably regained her Glasgow Southside constituency after a challenge from Scottish Labour chief Anas Sarwar – appeared to concede that achieving an outright majority was unlikely.

Turnout was up to possibly a record high for a Scottish Parliament election, with around 70% of people registered to vote doing so in some areas.

Experts reported widespread tactical voting in key SNP target seats such as Dumbarton, Eastwood, Edinburgh Southern, Edinburgh Western and North East Fife.

READ MORE: Tactical voting helped UK parties hold key SNP target seats

During the campaign, the SNP were hopeful of ousting Jackie Baillie in Dumbarton, who had a majority of just 109 in 2016. But the Scottish Labour deputy held onto her seat, increasing her majority to 1483 as the Tory vote crumbled.

The SNP also failed in their bids to take Eastwood from the Conservatives – with Labour voters appearing to switch to the Tories.

Similarly in Edinburgh Western and Edinburgh Southern, the incumbent MSPs Alex Cole-Hamilton, from the Lib Dems, and Daniel Johnson, from Labour, held on as pro-Union voters in the areas swung behind them.

However, the SNP did successfully bag the top target seats of Edinburgh Central and Ayr from the Conservatives and East Lothian from Labour.

The party claimed East Lothian, which has been Labour held since the parliament convened, with a majority of 1,179.

It then won Ayr, which John Scott had held for the Conservatives since a by-election in 2000, by only 170 votes and held off a strong Tory showing in Banffshire and Buchan Coast to secure a majority of 772 despite a more than 10 point swing to the Tories.

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said not winning Eastwood “reduces the SNP’s chances of winning an overall majority”.

He told the BBC: “They might just pick up a list seat in the Highlands and Islands and if all of that happened that might still take them to 65, but I think . . . the most probable outcome is indeed the SNP is going to be two or three seats short, and therefore we are looking at an SNP/Green majority for a referendum.”

He said that there was only a “very, very narrow” pathway to an SNP majority administration with Galloway and Aberdeenshire West, both Tory-held targets that will declare their results today.

As she arrived at the election count at the Emirates Arena in Glasgow yesterday, the First Minister said a majority was always a “long shot” given the Scottish Parliament mixed electoral first past the post and proportional representation system.

But she later told the BBC that a pro-independence majority in Holyrood of SNP and Green MSPs was, as she had previously maintained, a "significant" mandate for a second independence referendum.

She said a majority was not guaranteed and came down to a “small number of votes in a small number of seats”.

READ MORE: Record vote share for SNP at Holyrood election, insiders say

She added: “At this midway point it is certainly still there as a possibility but I have never taken that for granted. It is a long shot to say the least in a PR system.

“You have to effectively break the system. I would like to do it but I can’t be complacent or assume that would be the outcome.

“It is almost certain the SNP is going to win the election, and win the election comfortably and we should not understate the scale of that achievement. And if that is where we are tomorrow evening ... then I will be ready, eager to get back to work to see us through Covid and onto a better future.”

Pressed by the BBC that she was seeking an SNP majority to gain a mandate for a second independence referendum, she replied: “No I don’t think that is the case.

"If there is a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, of course as the leader of the SNP I would like that to be an SNP majority, but if that is the SNP and the Greens then that is still a significant mandate for an independence referendum when the Covid crisis is over.”

In Edinburgh Central, former SNP depute leader Angus Robertson beat the Tories in the party’s key target seat in the capital which was taken by Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson from the SNP in 2016.

Davidson has stepped down from Holyrood to sit in the Lords.

Robertson’s win marks his return to frontline politics after he lost his Westminster seat of Moray in 2017.

Last night there was speculation that Robertson is likely to find a role in the Scottish Government when the First Minister reshuffles her ministerial team after the election.

Several senior ministers are standing down including Health Secretary Jeane Freeman, Constitution Secretary Michael Russell, Environment Secretary Roseanna Cunningham and Communities Secretary Aileen Campbell.

The two additional constituency seats for the SNP in the south of Scotland – Ayr and East Lothian, raise the prospect of the party winning fewer list seats in the region.

As counting closed last night, the parties’ tallies stood at 38 seats for the SNP, four for the LibDems, three for the Conservatives and two for Labour.

On early reports of a possible record turnout for a Holyrood election, the SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford tweeted: “The news that turnout is up across Scotland is a victory for democracy and shows people are engaged in this historic election.

"I’m proud [the SNP] extended the vote to 16 and 17-year-olds, refugees and foreign nationals with leave to remain – with many voting for the first time.”

Counting continues in the remaining constituencies and regional lists today with the final result expected this evening.