A NEW Scottish election poll suggests the SNP could miss out on an overall majority at tomorrow’s election and lose two MSPs in the process.
The Savanta ComRes poll, carried out for the Scotsman, comes after a succession of surveys showing the party could win a majority – one by Opinium putting the SNP on 67 seats, and another by YouGov forecasting the SNP will return 68 MSPs.
This new survey for the Scotsman puts support the SNP in the constituencies at 42% and list vote backing on 34%.
If the new figures by Savanta ComRes were replicated tomorrow, the SNP would see its worst result at the Scottish Parliament since 2007.
READ MORE: SNP and Greens set for historic election success, new poll suggests
Scotland would still elect a pro-independence majority, the survey found, with the Scottish Greens polling at 9% on the regional list and likely to return nine MSPs, an increase of four on their current number.
Meanwhile the polling company’s detected slip in support for the SNP did not translate into major gains for the Unionist parties.
The Scottish Tories are on 25% in the constituencies, with 22% support on the regional list, up two and one points respectively from the firm’s last poll.
Labour are on 22% and 19%, up one point in the constituencies and no change on the list.
These results would see Douglas Ross lose just one MSP, making it one of the most optimistic polls for his party. The majority of surveys have projected more significant losses.
Meanwhile Labour would gain two MSPs, increasing their number from 24 to 26.
The LibDems would return all five of their existing MSPs to Holyrood, Savanta ComRes said. However their constituency support was detected at 8%, the highest polled in this campaign.
READ MORE: BBC Leaders' Debate: Nicola Sturgeon leaves Douglas Ross on the ropes
According to the survey, Alba would not gain any seats on 2% of regional list support.
Chris Hopkins, associate director at the polling firm, said ultimately these results would be an “ultimately dominant performance” for the SNP, although disappointing given other polls predicted a major victory tomorrow.
"Falling a little short of a majority is still ultimately a dominant performance from the SNP, and their disappointment should only be felt in the context of significant poll leads towards the end of 2020, where a disastrous year for a new Conservative government in Westminster, a lack of a Brexit deal and the first of murmurings at dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer were contributing to unprecedented numbers for the SNP and for independence,” he said.
"However, with some constituency races very tight, these numbers do not even necessarily present bad news for the SNP, and if the drop in support we’ve seen in 2021 can be restricted to areas they’re already strong, Thursday could still yield a strong, pro-independence feel to Holyrood when MSPs return.”
Savanta ComRes polled 1001 adults between April 30 and May 4.
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