FINDING a balance is a challenge for most things in life and it would appear my attempt in my last National column to explain the mechanics of the voting system in the up-and-coming Scottish elections was no exception.
While some people wrote to me thanking me for breaking things down in the diluted form in which I did, others felt it was too simplistic and bordering on patronising. That was certainly not my intention, so let’s have another go based on actual figures from the 2016 election.
Apologies in advance to those of you who detest number crunching, but I think they illustrate the importance of giving both votes to the SNP and disprove the claim that your second SNP vote is wasted.
An increasingly common example being used is the Lothian regional results from 2016. Lothian region has nine constituency seats, the winners of which are calculated using the first-past-the-post model. The results were as follows: SNP 6, Labour 1, Conservatives 1, LibDems 1 and Greens 0. There are then a further seven regional or list seats that are allocated through the second ballot paper using the additional members system.
The total regional votes and percentage share of the votes was: SNP (118,546 = 36.2%), Conservatives (74,972 = 22.9%), Labour (67,991 = 20.8%) Greens (34,551 = 10.6%) and LibDems (18,479 = 5.6%). It is generally the case that you require above 5% to gain a single seat, so for simplicity I will omit other parties, none of which got above 0.5%.
As I previously outlined, the formula for allocating the seven regional seats is applied by taking the total number of votes cast in the regional vote (second ballot) and dividing it by the number of seats a party has won in the constituency vote, plus one. For example, SNP got six seats, so we divide their votes by seven (six plus one) etc.
Therefore, the allocation for the first seat was worked out as follows: SNP (118,546/7 = 16,935), Conservatives (74,972/2 = 37,486), Labour (67,991/2 = 33,995), Greens (34,551/1 = 34,551) and LibDems (18,479/2 = 9240). As a result, the Conservatives won the first of the seven regional seats.
For the next seat everything stays the same with the exception of the Conservatives who have now picked up an extra seat and therefore have their total divided by three (two seats plus one). This process of dividing seats plus one into the original totals is repeated until all seven seats are allocated.
Rather than going through every round, let us summarise the state of play going into the seventh and final round in the Lothian region. Seat allocations were SNP 6, Conservative 4, Labour 3, LibDems 1 and Greens 1.
Again, the formula was applied as follows: SNP (118,546/7 = 16,935), Conservatives (74,972/5 = 14,994), Labour (67,991/4 = 16,998) Greens (34,551/2 = 17 276) and Lib Dems (18,479/2 = 9240) This resulted in an extra seat for the Greens.
Look at how close the battle was between the SNP, the Greens and Labour for that final seat. It was NOT a case of the SNP only fighting Unionist parties. SNP were also up against the Greens. If there had been a third independence party flung into the mix, it could easily have split the independence vote and allowed Labour to take the seat. It is disingenuous to state that voting for a newly formed minor party can “target” Unionist seats alone.
In 2016 the SNP had 42.4% of the constituency vote and 36.2% of the list vote in the Lothians. An increase of less than 1% in the list vote would have seen us win an additional seat ahead of the Tories. As another example, in South Scotland we were less than 5300 votes off from gaining a fourth regional seat. More than three times that many went to pro-independence parties who didn’t get any seats. Similarly, an extra 5125 votes in the Central Scotland list would have resulted in SNP beating Labour to the last list seat.
Despite polls and projections, nothing can be taken for granted. A clearer way to think of this election is that your first vote is for the person you want to represent you, and your second vote is for the party you want to form the Government.
No political party is perfect, but if the racism, bigotry and sheer venom on display from some of the newer parties is not enough to dissuade you from voting for them, perhaps the numbers will.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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