VACCINES have already had a "substantial effect" on the risk of being admitted to hospital with serious illness, new analysis shows.
Researchers in Scotland found that by the fourth week after receiving the initial dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines, the risk of being admitted to hospital from Covid-19 was reduced by up to 85% and 94%, respectively.
Scientists from the Universities of Edinburgh, Strathclyde, Aberdeen, Glasgow and St Andrews and Public Health Scotland examined data on people who had received either of the jags compared with people who had not yet received a dose.
Four weeks after receiving the initial dose, the AstraZeneca jag appeared to reduce a person’s risk of hospital admission by 94%.
Those who received the Pfizer jab had a reduction in risk of 85% between 28 and 34 days after the first dose.
Data for the two jabs combined showed that among people over the age of 80 – who are at high risk of severe disease – the reduction in risk of hospital admission was 81% four weeks after the first dose.
Lead researcher of the Scotland vaccine study Professor Aziz Sheikh, director of the University of Edinburgh’s Usher Institute, said: “These results are very encouraging and have given us great reasons to be optimistic for the future.
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“We now have national evidence – across an entire country – that vaccination provides protection against Covid-19 hospitalisations.”
The study is the first to describe a country-wide effect of the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines in the community on preventing severe illness resulting in hospital admissions.
The researchers examined data between December 8 and February 15. During this period, 1.14 million vaccines were administered in Scotland – 21% of the Scottish population.
The Pfizer vaccine has been received by some 650,000 people, while 490,000 have had the AstraZeneca jag.
Researchers looked at GP records on vaccination, hospital admissions, death registrations and laboratory test results – and compared the outcomes of those who had received their first jab with those who had not.
Dr Jim McMenamin, national Covid-19 incident director at Public Health Scotland, said: “These results are important as we move from expectation to firm evidence of benefit from vaccines.
“Across the Scottish population, the results show a substantial effect on reducing the risk of admission to hospital from a single dose of vaccine.
“For anyone offered the vaccine I encourage them to get vaccinated.”
Chris Robertson, professor of public health epidemiology at the University of Strathclyde, said: “These early national results give a reason to be more optimistic about the control of the epidemic.”
However, while the data shows that the vaccination programme is likely to be preventing severe illness related to Covid-19, there is not yet clear data on how it stops transmission
Dr Josie Murray, Public Health Scotland’s public health consultant lead for the EAVE II project, said the results do not have any bearing on the virus’s ability to transmit from person to person and did not advise any changes.
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She said: “I think it’s really important to emphasise that these data don’t support any comment about transmission or indeed transmission policy and therefore we wouldn’t be advising on the basis of these results that we should alter anything that we’ve got implemented currently to stop transmission of the virus from person to person within Scotland.
“The brilliant news is that the vaccine delivery programme in its current format is suggesting that it’s working.”
She added: “What I would urge people to continue to do is to follow all the public health guidance to stop transmission because these results don’t have any bearing on the virus’s ability to transmit from person to person.”
She said that as a group of scientists, they would recommend policymakers continue following the JCVI guidance.
Dr Murray urged people offered the vaccine to take their first and second doses, saying: “We can see from these data that you can protect yourself and your family and your friends and you can also protect the NHS by taking the vaccine.”
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