THE battle for Scottish independence will, in the end, be decided by the Scottish people when they as a whole take up an active role and decide that the time has come. They have not done that yet, but the time is fast approaching when they will. When it comes, it will not matter whether Boris Johnson agrees or not, it won’t matter if Nicola Sturgeon is ready or not, the surge from the people will be unstoppable.

It is like any battle – once the action has started, things tend to move faster than the generals can plan. So the best generals do most of their planning before the battle starts. We have to do the same if we want to win.

To do this we need to carefully examine the battlefield, the position of our forces and their weaknesses, and the position of the enemy forces and their strong points. The more we know about the enemy, the more able we are to arrange our forces in the most effective way.

READ MORE: Independence ‘won’t lead to hard border’ with England

Now what do we know about the coming independence battle? Well, we know what the main struggle will be, we now know fairly clearly when it will start, and we know how our enemy will deploy. That is a great advantage to us and enables us to plan our strategy for the battle.

What do I mean by this? The long struggle for independence has developed significantly in the last 30 years. Now, for the first time, opinion polls are showing a consistent majority for independence. This has not happened by accident. The major factor is the economic failure of the neo-liberal UK state. The financial crash of 2007/8 has not been dealt with and the massive austerity which the UK Government deployed has not been effective, and has been universally unpopular.

It is against that background that Scottish independence has become more attractive.

The Unionists will not give up on Scotland easily because Scotland’s wealth is keeping the UK economy afloat. During this pandemic they are claiming that the UK economy is keeping Scotland going with the furlough scheme and other UK hand-outs to Scotland. This is not the economic reality, but thousands of Scots will be convinced that it is. So this and other such UK propaganda will be applied and will be effective.

However, the real battle will start after the May elections, when two important things will happen: hopefully the SNP and independence-supporting candidates will do well in the election, and also there will be vaccines available to deal with the pandemic and this will allow for a return to some form of economic activity. Now, fortunately we know how the UK Government is going to attempt to re-open the economy, because they are currently giving us clear signals. They intend to restrict wages in the public sector in order to limit public expenditure.

Now then, let us look ahead to May. If as we expect, the SNP and independence-supporting candidates do well and win the election, they will be doing so in circumstance where many of the most vulnerable people will have been vaccinated against Covid-19, and also at a time when the public-sector employees will be fighting to protect their living standards from the UK Government’s new austerity policy.

The SNP needs to take up a position on the high ground. They should present an economic policy for Scotland which rejects “austerity” for most people and big profits for the super-rich. They can do this not only because it will be a very popular policy, but because it is the wisest economic policy.

The SNP could claim that if Scotland were independent they could guarantee not only to protect earnings, but to ensure that earnings would be increased in an independent Scotland for most employees. They could do this by establishing their own currency and reforming the banking system, supported by a land-based fiscal system which would ensure general incomes were maintained and developed to provide enhanced demand for development of the economy.

Some will claim this is a bold step and would cause major change. Well, that is true, but the alternative is also bound to cause major change, with austerity, economic stalemate, declining incomes and gross inequality. Since the UK wants to continue to choose the latter, let us choose the former.

If the SNP prepares for this, they could ride on the crest of a huge wave of political enthusiasm which will carry them on to a successful referendum and the establishment of an independent Scotland. The SNP leadership will, of course, need to prepare for this, and they are clearly not prepared for it at the moment, but the movement will not wait for them, so they had better start getting ready.

Andy Anderson
Saltcoats