THE offering of more powers to Scotland in an attempt to head off independence is unlikely to succeed because of the unpopularity of Boris Johnson, experts say.
A strategy document leaked last week outlined a series of possible measures the Tories could take to counter rising support for indyref2, including handing more powers to Edinburgh and ratifying a new settlement through a vote.
The idea that constitutional reform can stem support for independence is hardly new – including the 2014 “Vow” in the wake of the first referendum, which promised Scotland one of the most powerful parliaments in the world.
Dr Coree Brown Swan, deputy director and research fellow at Edinburgh University’s Centre on Constitutional Change, said that before 2014, surveys indicated there was support for “devo-max” and some form of extended devolution.
But she added: “I think post-2014 it becomes a lot more complicated. You have seen increases for support for independence since the Brexit vote and you see that support for independence coming largely from Remain voters.
“Would further powers within the UK but outside of the EU lure those voters back, those people who have made the step from No to Yes because of their commitment or their attachment to the EU?
“I don’t know if further powers would lure them back, and especially further powers offered by a government which isn’t viewed as particularly credible.”
Dr Brown Swan pointed out the suggested strategy came at a time when there are concerns over a threat to devolution from the UK Internal Market Bill.
She added: “There is also Covid too – even people who voted No, who don’t typically support the SNP, view Nicola Sturgeon as more competent in her handling of Covid than Boris Johnson. So having a credible offer of independence versus an offer of further powers quite ambiguously defined perhaps – I don’t know if that would make a difference for the Conservative Government.”
Dr William McDougall, lecturer in politics at Glasgow Caledonian University, said some of the offers of powers suggested in the strategy document could be attractive to some voters.
He added: “The major difficulty would be with the message – with who is actually selling some of these policies.
“It is the Conservative Party with Boris Johnson who is deeply unpopular in Scotland – certainly compared to the First Minister.
“So in that sense it becomes a harder sell to introduce this compared to if another party had been elected into power and was promising some policies to deal with the constitutional issue, or if another prime minister had offered this.”
He said looking at some of the other tactics outlined in the memo – such as trying to find a way to delay an independence referendum – suggested it was “overgenerous” to describe it as a strategy.
Dr McDougall added that offering a referendum on further powers could present difficulties for the SNP, particularly if the option of independence was also put to voters – but it would also be risky for the Tories.
“It would be harder for the SNP to say ‘we can’t put both of these things to the test’, as their preferred option would be on the ballot,” he said.
“It would be a highly risky strategy to put both of them on the ballot – obviously people might then decide to vote for independence which would certainly backfire on the UK Government if they pursued that
strategy.”
Whether the Conservatives would back the handing over of more powers to Scotland also remains to be seen, with reports suggesting some within the party are against any such move.
Dr McDougall pointed out the SNP had been in the minority over the issue of independence since the party began – but now it is the Unionist side which is facing that position.
“Unionism now for the past few months has found itself for the first time ever of being in the position of being, at present, the minority opinion in Scotland,” he said.
“It is certainly something which those in the Unionist camp are not used to and not prepared for.
“There is the kind of realisation they have to do something – even if that something is just a strategy going against the SNP record.
“Or a strategy of trying to find a way to delay things and hoping things will change, that people will reach the conclusion that achieving independence is just too difficult and will settle for other powers.
“For the Unionist side, that is probably the best they can hope for at the moment.”
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