IT has definitely been a week to remember. Over the space of five days, some of the most detailed polling about Scottish independence has been published, confirming the tectonic shift in public opinion.
Not only do 58% of people in Scotland who have an opinion now support Yes but 64% believe there would be a Yes result if a referendum was held. These are momentous findings, because they are just the latest in 10 polls showing a sustained and growing majority for Scottish independence.
In the super-sized poll by Survation for Progress Scotland there was a raft of wider conclusions. On European relations, which has caused the most significant move from No to Yes, nearly three-quarters of people who have an opinion believe Scotland’s Parliament and government should decide on the country’s relationship with the European Union. More generally, 74% agreed that control over all decisions affecting people in Scotland should be made by the Scottish Parliament/government, regardless of which political party are in power.
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On the economy, a remarkable 75% said they would vote for independence if they were convinced that it would be good for the Scottish economy, with 57% already agreeing that independence will be good for the Scottish economy in the long run.
On the comparison between the Scottish Government and the UK Government, 67% think the Scottish Government is competent but 70% of people think the UK Government is not. This was similarly mirrored on measures including effectiveness, responsiveness, good at communicating with the public and empathy. Comparative assessments on handling the coronavirus pandemic and between Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson, were positive for the First Minister and Scottish government and negative for Prime Minister and UK Government.
On current issues, the poll found that 78% of respondents with an opinion believe the UK Government breaking international law is unacceptable and 68% believe the UK Government will not transfer relevant powers from the EU to the Scottish Parliament and will damage the devolution arrangement The impact of the Internal Market Bill on indepen-dence voting intentions sees 32% more likely to vote Yes.
Further polling this week by Ipsos MORI delivered a record highest level of support for independence at 58%, but below the headline number, the socio-demographic statistics are jaw-dropping. By social class there is now a Yes majority is EVERY SINGLE strata of society – AB: 51%, C1: 55%, C2: 60%, DE: 69% – giving an overall majority among ABC1 voters of 53% and 65% among C2DE voters. By age, support for independence is now running at: 16-24: 79%, 25-34: 68%, 35-44: 70%, 45-54: 55%, 55-64: 57% and 65+: 40%.
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As BBC Newsnight policy editor Lewis Goodall noted: “See the Unionist problem here? Every time I’ve interviewed young voters in Scotland and asked them if they’re in favour of independence, they look at me as if I’ve asked a stupid question. Westminster needs to think v big and v hard about this and there’s little evidence of that.”
On BBC Question Time this week, in addition to extremely strong performances by Finance Secretary Kate Forbes and economist Miriam Brett, there was the contribution of a member of the audience which has subsequently gone viral.
Edinburgh University student Lucas Fawcett said: “So I’m coming from a place where, growing up in England and coming to a Scottish university, I was originally very pro the Union, but then seemingly all my Scottish friends that I have made here at the uni are all pro-independence … what most of my friends say is the opportunities for Scotland outside the United Kingdom; potentially being back in the European Union … are so much greater than if we are stuck here in the United Kingdom and being consistently held back by Westminster, which continues to prioritise London over any other part of the UK.”
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Given these developments, it is unsurprising that the level of support for the SNP is also riding extremely high, with the Ipsos MORI poll suggesting the party are standing at a remarkable 58% support and could gain nine seats at Holyrood next year while the second-placed Tories would lose eight.
No wonder First Minister Nicola Sturgeon messaged: “To my fellow SNP members – this level of support is hard earned but mustn’t be taken for granted. Stay focused and independence will follow – I’ve never been more certain. But our, my, immediate responsibility is to lead Scotland through Covid – right now, nothing matters more.”
Of course the First Minister is right to stay focused on the day job, dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, but something profound is happening to Scottish public opinion. It feels like a tipping point has been reached.
That, however, cannot be taken for granted. By remaining focused, persuasive and welcoming to new supporters, the open-minded and undecided, we will win.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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