RESEARCHERS are to examine how coronavirus restrictions on pubs, nightclubs and restaurants can be eased without putting pressure on emergency services or risking the spread of Covid-19.

The study has been triggered by fears emergency services may experience an increase in callouts – even above pre-pandemic levels – when restrictions are lifted.

Professor Niamh Fitzgerald, an expert on alcohol policy, warned there are risks associated with easing the lockdown on bars, nightclubs and restaurants.

“Governments and the public are very interested in how licensed premises may begin to reopen – but there are risks involved,” said Fitzgerald, who is leading the University of Stirling study.

“Whenever restrictions ease, businesses may seek to recoup losses and customers may choose to celebrate by drinking more than usual.

“The actions of businesses and consumers could have implications for how intoxicated people get and have a knock-on impact on our emergency services.”

She said one option could be to ease restrictions partially, or in a staggered way, potentially with measures remaining in place around sales, opening hours or venue capacities to minimise harm and impact on the emergency services. While it seems that the closure of bars and nightclubs across Scotland may have eased pressure on the Scottish Ambulance Service (SAS), concerns have been raised about perceived increases in house parties and domestic violence during the lockdown.

News of the study follows warnings that many premises in the hospitality sector may go bust if restrictions continue for much longer.

The latest CGA Business Confidence Survey revealed that just 36% of hospitality business leaders are predicting life after lockdown for all their venues once Covid-19 trading restrictions are lifted.

However there are also fears that if the lockdown is lifted too quickly, a second peak of the virus could result in restrictions being tightened again – a scenario that many businesses say would be even worse.

It has been reported that bars, restaurants and nightclubs will be the last to see any easing of the restrictions and even then social distancing measures will have to be continued – with the result that those reopening could face an estimated 50% drop in takings, meaning that many will become unviable.

The University of Stirling research, funded under the Scottish Government’s Rapid Research in Covid-19 programme, will examine policy options for reopening pubs, nightclubs and restaurants to minimise the impact on ambulance services and to protect customers and staff from the virus.

The team will investigate how the re-opening of premises could be phased in over time, and whether and how licence holders could minimise infection risks.

The study will also consider the way in which consumers and venues might respond to any easing of restrictions in terms of alcohol consumption, intoxication, violence, sales and promotions.

The impact of current restrictions on ambulance service callouts will be examined as well as the potential impact should establishments reopen.

Most pubs and nightclubs closed more than seven weeks ago as part of the UK and Scottish Government response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Fitzgerald said it was “really important” to understand the options available for easing restrictions.

“We will consult with a wide range of businesses, staff, policymakers and experts,” said Fitzgerald, of the Institute of Social Marketing and Health (ISMH) at the University of Stirling.

The research also involves Martine Stead, deputy director of ISMH, and Professor Jim Lewsey, of the Institute of Health and Wellbeing at the University of Glasgow.

“This study has only been possible because it builds on a strong existing collaboration with the Scottish Ambulance Service, to better understand the impact of alcohol on ambulance call-outs more generally,” said Professor Lewsey, an expert in medical statistics. “We are delighted to have the opportunity to support the service with relevant research at this challenging time.”

The research team will analyse SAS data on ambulance call-outs, interview premise owners and key stakeholders and may also examine customer behaviour and venue operation once the restrictions are eased, depending on the timing of any re-opening.

Professor Fitzgerald added: “Our aim is to feed information quickly and directly into policy and guidance, both at Scottish Government and local level, regarding the easing of Covid-19 restrictions on licensed premises.”

The new study is aimed to be completed within six months. It will build on data and preparatory work for two other projects – The impact of minimum unit pricing on ambulance callouts in Scotland, a study also funded by the Scottish Government’s Chief Scientist Office, and a proposed study, Evaluating later or expanded premises hours for alcohol in the night-time economy, both supported by Scottish Ambulance Service.

In addition to this study, two further projects within the programme address the impact of the virus on the SAS: one considering the challenges faced by paramedics, and another providing insight into the effect of psychiatric emergencies.