THE SNP is on course for its best ever result in a Holyrood election putting independence and the fight for a second referendum firmly back on the agenda, according to a new poll.
A Panelbase survey suggested the party would get a record 70 MSPs in next year’s election, provided it goes ahead as planned in light of the coronavirus crisis.
This result would be one more seat than the SNP achieved in its unprecedented majority in 2011, and put renewed pressure on Boris Johnson to grant a new vote on independence.
Reflecting a pattern seen in December’s general election, the SNP’s vote has increased at the expense of Labour and the Liberal Democrats, which have both declined.
Panelbase found 51% support for the SNP on the Holyrood constituency vote, up 8 points on their last poll in November.
Jackson Carlaw’s Tories were unchanged on 26%, Labour were down five on 14%, the LibDems down two on 6% and the Greens up one on 3%.
On the list vote, the SNP were up 10 points to 48%, the Tories unchanged on 26%, Labour down five on 13%, the LibDems down three on 6%, and the Greens unchanged on 6%.
The figures translate into the SNP winning 70 of Holyrood’s 129 seats, the Tories getting 35 (+4 on 2016), Labour 16 (-8), the LibDems unchanged on 5 and the Greens 3 (-3).
The survey of 1023 adults in Scotland between March 24 and 26 is the the first since the former First Minister's Alex Salmond’s acquittal on 13 sexual assault charges last week.
The results of the survey, commissioned by the Sunday Times, suggests the trial of the former SNP leader has not reduced support for the SNP.
Salmond stood down as a SNP member following the complaints made against him and following his acquittal there have been calls by a series of senior figures in the party to allow him to rejoin.
However, the survey suggests his reputation has been dented by the trial, in which even his defence admitted he could have been a better man and could behave inappropriately.
The poll found 46% of respondents felt no differently about Salmond after his trial. However 41% felt more negatively towards him and only 13% felt more positive about him.
Nicola Sturgeon’s reputation appears largely unaffected by the trial, with 21% of people saying they felt more negatively towards her, and 22% feeling more positive.
She has also been credited with responding well to the pandemic, with a net rating of +54 compared to +17 for Boris Johnson and -55 for Donald Trump.
The poll also recorded a small shift towards a Yes vote on independence, with support independence up two points to 49% and support for the Union down two points to 51%.
The First Minister earlier this month put on hold her plan for Indyref2 later this year because of coronavirus, although it had already been blocked by Johnson.
As previously reported in The National the 2021 Holyrood election could yet be postponed because of the pandemic.
SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown said: “This poll shows that support for the SNP is continuing to grow to historically high levels, as people continue to put their trust in the party to deliver for and protect Scotland.
“It also shows very strong public support for Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership and handling of the coronavirus pandemic, as the Scottish Government does everything it can to help and protect people, communities and businesses through the crisis.
“While taking nothing for granted, this strengthened support would translate to a record number of seats in Holyrood and sees opposition parties trailing far behind Scotland’s party of government.”
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