THE Scottish Government has warned that up to 200,000 people with extreme health vulnerabilities face three months of “strict” isolation.

The announcement came as the police were handed emergency powers to shut licensed premises that failed to close and the First Minister declared Scotland’s islands a no-go zone amid warnings the coronavirus was spreading faster than originally estimated and risked overwhelming hospitals.

Official figures yesterday revealed the number of deaths has risen from seven to 10 and 416 people have tested positive for Covid-19, an increase of 43 from Saturday. UK deaths reached 281, including a person aged 18 with an underlying health condition.

Briefing the media, Nicola Sturgeon announced that 200,000 Scots who could be most seriously affected by Covid-19 – including cancer patients and those who have had organ transplants – are to be given medical guidance which could see them having to shut themselves off from other family members in their own homes for 12 weeks. They will have to “strictly isolate”, she said, and will be given a support package which could see them get help with getting food and other essential supplies.

The NHS in England is sending letters to people it has identified as particularly vulnerable, who should stay home at all times for 12 weeks –not going out for shopping, leisure or travel.

Scotland’s national clinical director of healthcare Jason Leitch said earlier that the death toll from coronavirus could be “much worse” than 2000 if people fail to stay at home. He told the Sunday Mail: “We really aren’t messing around with this now. To protect individuals and society’s vulnerable, we need to make very drastic social distancing and isolation choices.”

The medical expert continued: “The chief scientific adviser in England has said he thinks 20,000 deaths across the UK would be a good outcome. In Scotland, that would be about 2000, but the worst-case scenario is much worse than that. People need to take the advice they’re being given very seriously.”

Heeding advice not to go out unless necessary and to stay away from others could be “the difference between tens of thousands of deaths and the number of around 2000”, he added.

Leitch stressed: “We’ve told the symptomatic and very vulnerable to stay at home. Then we told some other groups – those with diseases, those over 70 and those who are pregnant – to take very seriously the calls to reduce social contact. For everyone else, they must socially distance themselves as much as possible.”

Announcing the new police powers, Deputy Chief Constable Malcolm Graham criticised the “small number of public houses” that defied guidance to close. He said: “This is absolutely reckless and endangers not only the lives of customers, but wider communities, in an extremely fast-moving and unprecedented situation where both the health and safety of the nation is at stake.

“I obtained further legal advice and Police Scotland will now instruct officers to serve emergency closure orders on any licensed premises which refuses to comply on the grounds of the threat posed to public safety. Officers are now visiting these premises to have them closed. A compulsory closure under the Licensing Scotland Act remains in place for 24 hours but can be repeated as necessary.”

The move was unveiled as the First Minister said the army had to be called in to help get a coronavirus patient from one of the islands to the mainland for treatment.

It also came as Dr Catherine Calderwood, Scotland’s chief medical officer, revealed the rate at which the infection is being spread is higher than had been expected. Calderwood said it had “become clear we were underestimating the doubling time of the virus, actually the number of cases was spreading more rapidly than the estimates which had come from China”.

She said: “That means that each individual is infecting more people. So we had estimates of one person infecting two to three other people but they are actually infecting more people of that.”

One person could actually be spreading he virus to four to six people, she said. Calderwood added: “So that acceleration, that explosion of cases is likely to be accelerating more rapidly than we realised.”

She spoke after Sturgeon warned not following the social distancing advice risked more lives and overwhelming the health service.

The FM added: “If we all do the right thing now we will reduce that impact and save lives. If we don’t we face many more people than would otherwise be the case becoming ill and dying, and we risk our NHS being overwhelmed. I am not saying this to scare people, I am saying this to leave you in no doubt about the seriousness of the situation we face.”

She condemned the “tiny minority” of cafes, bars, restaurants, cinemas and other venues which continued to stay open, stating: “Let me be blunt – in doing so they put lives at risk. My message to them is close now.”

She told people not go shopping “except for essentials like food and medicine” and that they should not gather for parties at people’s houses or attend wedding receptions and other celebrations.

While people can go outside, she stressed they should continue to follow guidance on social distancing. “Beaches should not be busy, parks should not be full,” she said.