Six strong reasons to vote SNP ahead of Labour when you vote today

But are we all looking in the wrong direction?

Could Labour experience a late surge and nip back seats lost to the SNP in 2017, as Yes converts decide a Corbyn-run Britain sounds like an easier bet than independence?

There haven’t been enough recent, detailed opinion polls in Scotland to know what’s actually going on, but yesterday’s appearance by the Labour leader in Glasgow was not coincidental. The latest YouGov poll gives the Tories a projected majority of 28, down from 68 in just one month, which means a hung parliament is now within the margin of error. Labour suddenly have everything to play for south of the Border – but in Scotland?

It’s easy to see why Scottish Labour might be getting a second wind and a few left-leaning Yessers might be tempted.

Watching Jeremy Corbyn take an unfair pasting day after day creates sympathy. He’s the underdog, his treatment by the media is appalling, his policies are progressive and his party would create a much better Britain. If I was living in England, I’d vote Labour in a heartbeat.

But I’m not.

We’re not.

There are six strong reasons to vote SNP over Labour and maybe it’s wise to spell them out at this 11th hour.

Firstly, voting SNP is a double lock for progressive voters.

If Labour win across UK, the SNP will support them. With more experience of actually doing the progressive things Corbyn’s proposing, that could be very useful to Labour. And the arrangement will obviously help Scots who want indyref2.

If Boris wins south of the Border and the SNP win north of it, we are suddenly in a Tale of Two Mandates, where Boris will claim endorsement for “getting Brexit done” and denying Nicola Sturgeon a second independence referendum – whilst the First Minister can claim Scottish backing for a deal that lets Scotland remain in the single market and decide the timing of indyref2.

Of course, there’s no formula that says an SNP tally of 41 seats triggers automatic constitutional clout. This is a winner-takes-all democracy, after all. But the London media has finally realised that Brexit, Boris and his behaviour could trigger the break-up of Britain. They are listening sympathetically. At last.

If Labour lose across the UK, at a time like this, against a Tory leader like Boris, then the London media and Scotland’s Labour voters will be hard-pressed to deny that the only way to create progressive change in our lifetimes is through the Scottish, not the British, Parliament.

In this (far more likely) scenario, anything that weakens the SNP’s mandate weakens Scotland’s case for respect, attention and autonomy. So, it matters that the SNP get a higher share of the vote and more seats than in 2017. It matters that they clearly win the election in Scotland, because winning on the platform of a second indyref means Scots have endorsed it. Voting Labour just weakens that.

Secondly, even if Corbyn does win this time, there’s no certainty – given past voting patterns – that his left-wing government would be any more than a shaky and tentative one-hit wonder with a turbulent single term in office, buffeted by an establishment determined to defeat Labour’s public ownership plans.

I realise even a brief respite from the relentless onslaught of Toryism would be welcome south of the Border. It’s all left-leaning voters can really hope for.

But in Scotland, we have the prospect of so much more. We have, to borrow John Smith’s expression “a settled will” – a political consensus that relatively easily accepts European co-operation, freedom of movement, progressive taxation, a humane benefits system and the whole post-war settlement England has abandoned. Scotland can deliver, long term on the entire Labour prospectus – indeed where powers exist, it already has. Can England? It takes decades to change the political culture of a country. Will Labour be given decades south of the Border? I really doubt it. Why throw good Scots money after bad?

Thirdly, Labour’s internal battles will get a new lease of life if Corbyn wins power. Yesterday, on the eve of polling, 15 former Labour MPs took out newspaper ads in key northern marginal seats urging voters to vote Tory because Corbyn is a security risk. Wow. Think that through a minute. Prominent former Labour party members prefer Boris Johnson for Prime Minister. Disloyal is too small a word. Obviously, the faint-hearted 15 aren’t in the Labour Party now, but many relics of New and Old Labour are waiting for the chance of a final battle against Momentum and the Corbynites. Who knows when these irreconcilably opposed factions will erupt into civil war, jeopardising the equilibrium of a Labour government? Far better for Scots to plough our own furrow or at least spread the risk and perhaps stabilise Labour, by electing enough SNP MPs to win a permanent shift of control to Holyrood.

Fourthly, Brexit. It won’t “get done” with Boris but it won’t definitely get shelved with Corbyn either. A defeat for oven-ready Boris would indeed suggest England now supports Remain. But it’s hard to predict how a second Brexit referendum might go. Much safer to shore up our own European future than depend on proxy decisions from a volatile, changeable English electorate.

Fifthly, and perhaps most importantly, voting Labour in Scotland weakens the clout of the Scottish Government and by extension the Scottish Parliament and case for independence. Consider.

LABOUR is a Unionist party. So, voting Labour is essentially a vote of no confidence in our own developing political institutions, even though they – not Labour – have protected Scots from the worst ravages of austerity. Is there any evidence Labour wants the Scottish Parliament to expand, develop and thrive? Au contraire. It was the People’s Party that pulled control over the minimum wage and employment law OFF the table during the final burst of horse-trading at the Smith Commission in 2014.

Of course, there’s a different leader now. But Jeremy Corbyn’s vision for Scotland isn’t more devolution, it’s the rollout of centrally determined investment decisions. Of course, more cash is welcome – but without control, input, strategy? Scotland is not a larger version of Sheffield. We have our own systems, outlooks, institutions, ways of doing things – our progressive tilt is part of what makes us Scottish. But if electricity is taken into public ownership will there be several companies or just one large British entity?

In short, will Corbyn’s nationalisation programme take us back to the “one size fits all” 70s, or recognise the irreversible shift towards Home Rule that’s been happening ever since? Is Corbyn talking about “as near federalism as possible” in his vision for the UK? No, he isn’t. The risk is that a Labour government without SNP support will be as Unionist as the Tories.

Why run that risk?

Finally, we owe it to England to keep heading for independence. As a despairing senior academic told me at a conference in Oxford, England needs the cataclysmic shock of Scottish independence to loosen the stranglehold of the establishment, the market and rule by elites. In the long run, the end of the Union may have more transformational impact on rUK than just another (well-meaning and short-lived) change in the guard.

Now fair enough, if I was living in England that would still be enough for me.

But I’m not.

We’re not.

As the one-time Labour-supporting Daily Record put it yesterday: “In Scotland, where 13 sitting Tory MPs have the potential to bestow Johnson a majority, the task is clear. In all 13 of these seats, the main challenger is the SNP. Many voters in Scotland have crossed party lines before, but to prevent a Tory majority we call on many to do so perhaps for the first time.”

Quite.

So, vote SNP to safeguard Scotland’s interests – no matter which UK party might scrape home tomorrow. Scotland is building a viable path towards long-term transformational change. Dinnae blow it.