MAKING sense of this election is not going to be a simple process. All elections convulse one way and another through the course of them before the day of choice arrives. As we know, we are our choices. This one remains extremely difficult to read all across the UK.

The central assumption has been that the Conservatives are on course to win an overall majority at a UK level. This idea is reinforced by the harsh reality that the only person with worse leadership trust ratings than the Tory Prime Minister Boris Johnson is his Labour counterpart Jeremy Corbyn.

Dumb And Dumber was an amusing film. It is not an amusing leadership choice. In Boris Johnson we have what US President Donald Trump calls “Britain Trump”. He is part of an axis of strongmen populists across Europe and the Americas that is extremist in both political choice and personal conduct. As for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour, they have lost – almost entirely and completely deservedly – their once-reliable stronghold of Scotland. And across the rest of the UK they have struggled to be the repository of dissent because they preach the solutions of 6o years ago and out of both sides of their mouths on Brexit.

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But it seems less certain now and a hung parliament remains a distinct possibility.

The other dynamic that makes this one harder to call than most is the combination of tactical voting and extreme division. Labour voters across England will swither between voting LibDem to beat the Tories, staying loyal to their own party or even – and this is the stunning thought – voting Tory over Brexit.

And the LibDems’ squeeze appears to have come early and tight. Normally what happens is that the broadcast election coverage shines a light on them and they come across all centrist and reasonable in between the two big parties. The likeability of their leaders over the years has lifted their tide before the last-week squeeze reduces their impact and voters plump for Tory or Labour, depending.

In this one, they tacked so hard on Brexit and Scotland that they sounded undemocratic, so the early fillip was meagre. In the meantime, it feels harsh to observe, but their talented young leader hasn’t shone so brightly. Jo Swinson has plenty of time in public life to come (we assume) but will have to learn some pretty tough lessons from the experience of recent weeks and months if she is to make the most of her undoubted abilities.

The National:

The good news is that Ukip/Brexit Party appear spent. The bad news is that their legacy lives on in the Conservative Party. The less we see of Nigel Farage, the better for the gaiety of the nation. He has firmly denied suggestions that he has accepted baubles in return for strategic acquiescence. So, we can expect Sir Nigel to take his seat in the House of Lords in the early new year.

The leaders of both Plaid Cymru and the SNP have had excellent elections in which their relevance to a battle for Downing Street has remained keen. On the face of it, this means they could maintain decent vote shares, although whether this cuts through into advances on a local level remains an especially tall order.

It is easy to forget, but as recently as 2010, while holding power at Holyrood, the SNP won only six seats at Westminster with fewer than 20% of the vote. In this context, maintaining almost double that vote and six times the number of seats (35) would be a remarkable feat.

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To win again in Scotland after nearly 12 years in power at Holyrood would be a historic outcome. To increase either vote share or seats, even more so.

Winning some of Labour’s six seats and some of the Tories 13 should be a very tall order. Holding on to all 35 seats could be very difficult given nine of the 35 have a majority of fewer than 1000 and four have a majority fewer than 100.

The most marginal is, obviously, North East Fife, where all eyes will be on the capable, clever and personable Stephen Gethins defending a majority of two. I worked with Stephen in the first Scottish Parliament term and he is top of most reasonable people’s lists of who you would wish to see in parliament at any time.

The Tories are talking up their chances of holding on to their seats and maybe even gaining enough Labour voters in Lanark and Hamilton East to win. It would seem a bizarre travesty for most Lanarkshire people I know, but in Scotland they have become the party of “against” – so much so that even a small number of Labour votes could actually deliver for Boris Johnson. Such a result would cement Jackson Carlaw’s claim to long-term leadership of what would be a party of crack troops for the extremist government they would support in London.

As for Labour, they will be hoping the wall-to-wall coverage, the Waspi funding and the routine last-week squeeze could see them hold what they have and maybe even pick up the odd marginal with a strong local campaign.

The core message in all of this is that every single vote counts like never before.