THE Prime Minister's new Brexit deal has been backed by the 27 EU member states.
President of the European Council Donald Tusk said the new proposals had the backing of the EU members and had been positively assessed by Ireland.
Speaking as part of a press conference following talks earlier, he added “it looks like we are very close to the final stretch”.
Irish premier Leo Varadkar (above) also spoke at the conference. He told reporters he had learnt two things about the EU in his times as taoiseach. The first was that he had seen the unity of the EU and what it could achieve by standing together as one.
The second was that as a leader of a small country he had felt "enormous solidarity" from the bloc.
The new deal could now be ratified by the October 31 deadline if it is endorsed by Westminster.
If that happens, it could be rubber stamped next week in Strasbourg.
However, whether that's possible is currently unclear. The Cicero Group has crunched the numbers and they show various outcomes.
This @ciceroglobal chart helpful
— Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) October 17, 2019
DUP rebel but ERG + Lab MPs who backed May + indy Cons support: Johnson loses -5
DUP+ERG reject but Lab MPs who backed May+indy Cons: Johnson loses -55
DUP rebel, ERG support+Leave Lab MPs+Lab MPs 4 deal + indy Cons = Johnson wins +29 pic.twitter.com/RJxsV7978R
The deal will be voted on this Saturday.
Firstly, if the DUP do not back the deal - which they currently say they won't - but the European Research Group (ERG), Labour MPs who back May and the former Tories who were recently expelled from the party all do, the deal would lose by five votes.
Next, if both the DUP and ERG reject the deal, while Labour MPs who backed May's agreement and the expelled Tories support it, it would lose by 55 votes.
So it looks like Johnson needs the support of Leave-supporting and May's deal-supporting Labour MPs, the support of the ERG and the backing of the expelled Tories to get a deal through. That would get the agreement through by 29 votes.
The best case scenario would include support from the DUP, but this is currently unlikely as they said they would not back it earlier today.
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