THIS page has featured reports from Yes Marchmont and Morningside in Edinburgh, who carry out public opinion surveys in their area.
They have now completed another survey in two 2014 No-voting areas of South Edinburgh – Bruntsfield and Morningside – following on from similar research last year.
It’s highly localised, obviously, but in line with national polls, they are finding a switch in opinions.
They told us: “We obtained responses from 341 people; if the sample were random the margin of error would be 5.4%. But of course, the sample is not random, though, comparisons can reasonably be made to the survey results we obtained last year in Bruntsfield and Morningside using similar methods.
“The survey was headed ‘In the event of a hard Brexit … ’ and comprised five statements to which people were invited to express their agreement or disagreement.”
The five statements were: 1. Scotland should remain in the UK, whatever the consequences of Brexit.
2. Scotland’s future should be decided by the people living in Scotland.
3. Opening up the NHS to private firms (as could happen under new trade deals) is a price worth paying to stay
in the UK.
4. The likely impact of Brexit has made me think more positively about independence.
5. The best future for Scotland is as an independent nation within the EU.
There was overwhelming support for Scotland’s future being decided in Scotland and any moves to increase the role of private companies in the NHS, as could occur in new trade deals post-Brexit, would further reduce support for the Union. The group commented: “Overall in the present survey, more than 60% of responders agreed that Brexit had made them think more positively about independence. This shift was present in all age groups but stronger in younger people, and similar in men and women.
“Comparing the results with those we got last year in the same locations, we believe a big shift in opinions about independence is taking place.
“We realise that the sample we get from stopping people on the street is not fully representative of the local population, but we do think it’s valid to compare results from year to year.
“Whereas last year there was a majority against independence, this year there is a majority for it. The notion that a shift of opinion has taken place is reinforced by the responses we obtained to the statement ‘The likely impact of Brexit has made me think more positively about independence’.”
“Some 63% agreed with this, with only 29% disagreeing (and 8% being unsure). The shift is present in all age groups, and is the same for men and women, but is especially strong among younger people.”
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