A SCOTTISH academic has blown apart a news story which claims the independence "neverendum" has seen UK property investment fall to an "all-time low" in Scotland.
The story, which has appeared in several Scottish news outlets since Sunday, cites comments by Professor Colin Anthony Jones of Heriot-Watt University’s Urban Institute.
Jones told The Sunday Times: "Political risk created by the neverendum increased uncertainty and had a negative effect on sentiment, with reduced real estate investment by UK investors."
READ MORE: One of the world’s top investment bankers backs independence
"The political risk of the neverendum is the consequences of independence.
"Commercial property investors must inevitably take account of the insecurity created by the independence risk. This risk to UK investors would include uncertainty about the political direction of a new country and the future of the Scottish economy."
Public Finance Minister Kate Forbes quickly refuted Jones' claims, saying: "In the run-up to the 2014 referendum, the Scottish economy grew by 1.9% and foreign direct investment increased — cementing Scotland’s position as the UK’s most attractive place to invest outside London."
Now, Professor Iain Docherty — Dean at Stirling University's Institute for Advanced Studies — has created a Twitter thread analysing the paper Jones's comments were based upon.
So I have acquired a copy of the ‘neverendum’ property investment article that has been doing the rounds in the press since Sunday. It is *very* unusual for an academic article to be trailed to the press before it is actually published and therefore available to read.
— Iain Docherty (@iaindocherty) July 16, 2019
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Docherty writes: "So I have acquired a copy of the ‘neverendum’ property investment article that has been doing the rounds in the press since Sunday. It is *very* unusual for an academic article to be trailed to the press before it is actually published and therefore available to read."
He goes on to explain how the study starts by comparing Scotland's situation with similar ones around the world before moving on to dissecting the country's economy.
He adds: "The numbers presented are very thin indeed and don’t do much to support the author’s hypothesis. ‘Analysis’ ends in 2017, and assertions are made about tiny numbers of large developments. Narrative would be completely upended if timeline extended to include eg Barclays/St James.
"Broader overall property investment numbers correspond to the economic cycle. They do however show strong growth in overseas investment in Scotland since 2016 (which to be fair the author points to). Draw your own conclusions as to why this wasn’t the headline in the papers."
An online version of the study is expected to be made available soon.
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