BRITAIN is now just three days away from falling off the Brexit cliff edge. Legally, if we haven’t come to some understanding with the EU by 11pm on Friday 12 April then we will crash out without a deal.
It’s still unlikely – there’s no appetite for a no-deal in either London or Brussels – but it could still happen if nothing is agreed.
TODAY
THERESA May flies off to Berlin and Paris, to plead with Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron for a short extension to the Article 50 process.
Her last-ditch attempts with her counterparts on the continent will come as Europe ministers from the remaining 27 EU countries meet in Brussels to prepare for tomorrow’s summit. This is a sort of pre-meeting meeting, where the ministers do all the hard work so that the leaders can swoop in on the following day for the handshakes.
After the Europe ministers meet they will have a press conference and we may then have a better idea of what to expect from the summit.
READ MORE: Brexit crisis as talks between May and Corbyn flop
Meanwhile, if the Tories and Labour strike a deal, there could be another “meaningful vote”
Though should talks falter, again, then May has promised to hold another series of indicative votes on various Brexit alternatives. She may set out details of those votes today.
WEDNESDAY
May will be back in the Commons for her weekly 45 minutes-of-hell at Prime Minister’s Questions. She will then head to Brussels in the afternoon for the emergency EU summit where she’ll have to explain why she’s asking for another extension to the Article 50 process.
The summit starts at 6pm, and the only thing on the agenda is whether to grant the UK a Brexit extension.
At this point May will have to detail, convincingly, on how she hopes get her deal through Parliament. What could happen here is that EU leaders reject May’s timeline and instead propose the so-called “flextension” of up to a year.
READ MORE: Jamie Glackin: ‘Labour faces exodus if deal opposes free movement’
That would mean Brexit delayed until 2020, giving the UK more time to sort itself out.
But that delay can end before 2020, if, somehow, MPs managed to agree a deal passed before then.
Whatever the length of the flextension it would almost certainly mean having to hold elections to the European Parliament.
The summit will likely see May address the 27 leaders, before leaving them to discuss what to do.
The debate at the summit is likely to go on for hours. It could be well into the next morning before we have any sense of their decision.
THURSDAY
This could be fallout day. If May and Jeremy Corbyn have agreed a deal that involves some form of customs union then expect ministers to walk. If May has agreed a lengthy extension at the EU summit then expect ministers to walk.
READ MORE: What exactly is a customs union and why are MPs divided on it?
If May has failed to agree a extension and the the UK faces a hard-Brexit then expect ministers to walk. Could we even see an indyref2 announcement from Nicola Sturgeon? Whatever happens, the pressure on May to go sooner rather than later will be immense.
FRIDAY
If the EU says no to May’s request for a further extension, and if no deal is passed, then the Prime Minister will have to choose between revoking Article 50, effectively cancelling the Brexit process, or leaving the EU without a deal.
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