THE latest Caledonian independence vote has gone the way of ‘no’ by almost the same margin of victory as in September 2014.

Or should that be ‘non’, for this vote took place in New Caledonia in the Pacific Ocean over the weekend, where the population voted by 56% to 44% on a turnout in excess of 80% to stay part of France.

The result was much closer than had been predicted. Voters in the mainly self-governing territory had been asked the question: “Do you want New Caledonia to gain full sovereignty and become independent?”

Polls had predicted a ‘non’ vote of between 65% and 70%, but the much tighter margin means it is now almost inevitable that a further independence referendum or two will be held in the next four years.

For under the arrangements made in 1998, a referendum on independence had to be held by the end of 2018, and in the event of the now realised ‘non’ vote, two further referendums can be held before 2022.

That deal came after years of struggle by the indigenous Kanak people. Under French colonial rule imposed in 1853, the Kanaks were confined to reserves and excluded from much of the island’s economic activities.

Fighting broke out in the mid-1980s amid anger over poverty and poor job opportunities, and Kanaks – the largest ethnic group with about 40% of the population – demanded independence, before a massacre in a cave on the island of Ouvéa in 1988 left 19 Kanak separatists and two French soldiers dead.

That incident led to talks on the island’s future, with France keen to hold onto New Caledonia which has about a quarter of the world’s deposits of nickel, a vital component in the electronics industry.

The archipelago is also seen by France as a strategic political and economic asset in a region which is increasingly coming under the influence of China.

Though New Caledonia is about 11,000 miles from France, the islands are subsidised to the tune of about £1.2 billion annually – around £5000 per head of the population of 250,000, of whom 175,000 were eligible to vote in the referendum.

The poll passed off peacefully. Unlike David Cameron, president Emmanuel Macron’s Government had struck a conciliatory note during the run up to the referendum, and the president himself had visited the islands to emphasise the territory’s self-governing status within France.

President Macron said in a speech on French television yesterday: “The New Caledonians have chosen to remain French ... It is a vote of confidence in the French republic, its future and its values.”

In recent years, France has faced calls for independence in several of its overseas territories, which are a legacy of the country’s colonial past. Djibouti in Africa and Vanuatu in the South Pacific both voted for independence in 1977 and 1980 respectively and French Guiana in South America and the Mediterranean island of Corsica both also have active independence campaigns.

Speaking after the results were in, Alosio Sako, head of the pro-independence Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front, said: “The Kanaks have become aware that they need to show their determination to be free at last.

“We’re a short step away from victory and there are still two votes to come.”