TODAY’S Brexit Cabinet meeting will be the last stand for the risible and pathetic Theresa May.
She is caught between finance capital, who are demanding a deal which will involve them having unrestricted access to European markets, and the hard-Brexit headbangers lead by Jacob Rees-Mogg. The EU bureaucrats know this and will make free movement a pre-condition of any final deal.
The hard Brexit faction anticipates the revival of a mythic past. A land where the capitalist oligarchy is free to exploit the population and pollute the environment to its heart’s content; where the workers are deprived of any significant social rights, including the right to public education, medical care and retirement security; where police can maim and kill with no questions asked; where corporations can underpay workers, fire them at will and even use child labour; and where the basest prejudices are cynically encouraged and essential.
A taste of what no deal means has been spelled out. The Home Office has announced that EU citizens currently living in Britain and intent on remaining will be required to register with the Home Office during the “transition” phase of Britain’s exit from the EU.
As many as 3.8 million people are likely to be impacted. Those registering will be allocated a number. Failure to register will mean, post-Brexit, EU citizens, many of whom have lived in Britain for years and decades, face losing access to healthcare, schools, public funds and pensions.
The hard Brexit faction are pinning their hopes on a trade deal with Trump. However he is in no mood to deal.
The escalation of his trade war is starting to have an affect.
Chinese stock markets have continued the fall over the first six months of the year that has wiped some $2 trillion off market valuations.
Trump is now also trying to reduce Iran’s oil output to zero.
This wouldn’t be consequence-free. Even if the US is only able to cut Iran’s oil exports in half, it could have a devastating impact on the global economy, fueling a surge in global oil prices. Supply is already a bit tight, and taking Iranian supply off the table would make things far worse.
Commodities analysts are projecting a 20%-25% spike in the price of oil, which is already at high levels. This could easily be worse, as the price of oil tends to be particularly sensitive to momentum trades after major swings.
The reality of the chaos that Brexit is about to unleash is suddenly starting to dawn on May. Her response is to put her fingers in her ears and sing.
Alan Hinnrichs
WE are in a surreal world at No 10. There have been so many terms issued over the last two years about a Brexit customs arrangement.
We had amongst other things a “bespoke” deal and now it is a “facilitated” arrangement. We are in the dark as to what it is meant to facilitate, but it masks the obvious. Cake and eat it springs to mind.
It must be bad when David Davis at the outset is said to pronounce it unworkable.
So far, all contorted versions of cherry picking have floundered. The EU’s Michel Barnier has stressed that the four freedoms are sacrosanct and that the EU will not alter its fundamentals to accommodate a leaver nation which had opt-outs and privileges.
It is a hard Brexit we are going to see!
May’s red lines have boxed her in, and the Tories are going to split as both wings of the party are on a collision course. The contradictions within cannot be reconciled.
Ironically, the Moggites aim to go to World Trade Organisation rules and a deal with Trump is now suspect, as Trump’s new “FART” proposals are aimed at circumventing the WTO. He is aiming for bilateral deals. So all is up in the air. One cannot do bilateral deals with a capricious president who is aiming to circumvent Congress. Given his recent tearing up of treaties at a whim, it is not prudent to deal with the Potus, who is unpredictable to say the least.
John Edgar
Kilmaurs
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